Nothing to say. Not much going on. Can't get any CEOs to comment. Too close to the end of the quarter. People are dismissive of Nucor (NYSE: NUE) (Cramer's Take), and happy with Darden (NYSE: DRI) (Cramer's Take). Meanwhile, Tim Geithner's been silent, and silence is golden. Now if only he would ask one simple question: What are we guaranteeing with AIG (NYSE: AIG) (Cramer's Take)? It's a sideshow but an important one down the road, not now.
All of these things are of a piece. We are in one of those golden moments when not much is happening, and when we get information, we declare it half-full. I found myself thinking that Nucor's decline has to be some sort of a bottom because utilization rates don't get much lower than this. I found myself thinking that the infrastructure plan will kick in because everyone has now decided it will and that's all that matters.
So often in my career I have had to suspend the "rigor" that got me here. Of course Karen Cramer always explained it differently. She always said that the toughest thing to do is the most rigorous, and sometimes the toughest thing to do is to stay long or buy when things aren't so good and others are fleeing.
That's what this moment is like. Do I believe that Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) (Cramer's Take) or Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) (Cramer's Take) is doing well? Wrong question. Do I think that Microsoft and Intel are priced for not doing well? Yes.
Same with the transports. I really don't care about the near term for Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP) (Cramer's Take). I know that business isn't that good. But they have long-term contracts that will see them through, and the stock reflects cancellation of those contracts. So the rigorous thing is to hold, not sell.
It's like that right now. The camps are dichotomous:
1. The rally is a bear-market rally, so forget it, and
2. The fundamentals stink, so forget it.
I am pushing for No. 3: Forget the characterization, find something you can live with because the awful fundamentals are already priced in, and buy!
Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Union Pacific.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
3-18-2009 @ 10:54AM
james said...
Is now a good time to convert the warrants on cqb? Do not understand the process but think there is a date tagged to the warrants. If one does, how?
6-12-2009 @ 11:16PM
arfur said...
does anybody really know what is going on I doubt it it is a crap shoot....always has been and always will. ahs