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Fast Food Wars #2: McDonald's looks strong on global numbers, new menu, smart management

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This is the second post in Fast Food Wars, a look at the players in this unhealthy business that has traditionally garnered healthy returns in down times as Americans tank up on fries and burgers slathered with secret sauce.

Last week we looked at Burger King (NYSE: BKC), today we turn to Mickey D's, the grand-daddy of them all. McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD ) boasts over 35,000 locations (franchised and company owned) in 100 countries.

Piqqem Sentiment for McDonald's is presently at 268 points (on a scale of 0 to 400), a bullish sentiment rating. But sentiment has been declining since late February, falling from six-month highs of 283 points. Wall Street analysts are, on average, bullish on McDonald's, with an average rating of 2 (buy) on a scale of 1-to-5 points (1=strong buy, 5=strong sell).

Here are a few of the factors to consider: A growing global middle class, particularly in emerging markets like China, India, and Latin America, is a massive opportunity for McDonald's. But McDonald's has already played those markets better than other rivals, so it may have less upside in the future.

On the other hand, McDonald's international operations have suffered from the double whammy of the strong dollar and the hard-hitting economic downturn that has impacted emerging markets more than those in the U.S. and the E.U. McDonald's does 60% of its business overseas. But should foreign currencies strengthen relative to the dollar, goods sold in foreign markets will suddenly be worth more dollars back in the U.S., boosting earnings disproportionately for McDonald's with its broad global presence.

The company has won accolades for revamping stores and menus and hooking customers on upscale coffee akin to Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX ). Extended hours have goosed sales and cheaper input costs (on corn and wheat) have made it easier to stick to gross margins and operating margin targets.

McDonald's has only managed to grow moderately in the U.S. and that is of some concern, but the company is incredibly well run, particularly for its size -- and size does matter. McDonald's enjoys many advantages due to its massive size compared to other fast food players. Uniform menu offerings can be mass produced, lowering production costs. Bargaining power with suppliers lowers input costs and boosts margins. Large advertising budgets means lots of domestic and international exposure. In short, McDonald's is making bigger better for burgers

McDonald's remains the top performer in the industry and in the market. It is financially in good health all due to its conservative accounting practices and wise business operations. It is trading in the low-$50 range between its 52-week high of $67 and its 52-week low of $45.79. Valuations stand steady at a P/E value of roughly 14 and F P/E of roughly 16. That's a bit lower than industry average but higher than S&P 500's PE valuations. No doubt, you are paying for quality management.

It is rare to find unanimous analyst sentiment in this market and McDonald's pretty much has it -- no one rates it a sell. That makes McDonald's look promising, particularly after pullbacks. However, shorter term McDonald's could face challenges if the economy worsens and America transitions from Big Mac's to victory gardens.

Alex Salkever is Director of Research for Piqqem.com , a stock research and prediction community powered by the Wisdom of Crowds.

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Last updated: November 24, 2009: 04:18 AM

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