AOL Money & Finance

Inaction and a financial crisis don't mix

Investor Jim Rogers, noted for his expertise in commodities, is someone Wall Street professionals, business executives, and economists alike pay close attention to, as he's frequently been ahead-of-the-curve regarding market and investment trends.

Still, that's not to say that Rogers sometimes can't overdo it a bit and/or does not get it wrong.

A recent chat Rogers had with Bloomberg News is an example of the latter, as the talk yielded more rhetoric, half-truths, and flat out absurd statements and not a whole not of illumination.


Mr. Rogers' neighborhood

First, Rogers told Bloomberg News the U.S. government's rescue of American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG) is equivalent to this: "The U.S. is taking assets from competent people and giving them to incompetent people." The U.S. government should let AIG go bankrupt, Rogers said.

Comment: Now that's a pleasant scenario, Jim.

The Reality: The Fed intervened to save AIG because it's quite possible that AIG came within 48-72 hours of triggering an unprecedented financial catastrophe in the United States -- one that would have sent financial and economic shockwaves around the world.

Second, Rogers, a market absolutist and an economic conservative, feels companies like General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM), Ford Motor company (NYSE: F), Chrysler, Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C), Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC), and government service providers like Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) etc. should not be rescued. They weren't productively managed, he said, the market says they should fail, so they should fail.

For Rogers, it apparently doesn't matter if the idling of GM's and Ford's assets causes the U.S. unemployment rate to race to 15%, or if Fannie's and Freddie's insolvency causes the mortgage market to entirely stop, or if Citigroup's and the Bank of America's operational cessation triggers a global financial crisis and the end of the modern financial system as we know it. In Rogers' world, all of these consequences are preferred and good, because the market says they should occur, and the market, not the U.S. Congress – as the U.S. Constitution says -- is apparently sovereign, in his view.

Third, Rogers sees "serious inflation down the road" and record oil prices in 3-5 years, Bloomberg News reported. Regarding inflation, Rogers made no comment on the prospect of an Obama tax increase -- after the economy recovers – checking that inflation. He also made no reference to the $1.35 trillion 2001 Bush administration tax cut -- and the increase in defense spending -- that created the budget deficit and the inflationary pressures in the first place. Regarding oil, yes, it looks like oil's price could trend high over 3-5 years, assuming both the U.S and global economies resume normal growth tracks.

Market Analysis/Economic Analysis: For Rogers, there's apparently no need for government intervention, no need for fiscal stimulus, no need for quantitative easing, no need to try to stabilize the financial markets or re-liquefy credit markets. For Rogers, the market will take care of everything.

It's been said that given the many advantages of the modern era, citizens should be thankful for many things. Well, rest assured yours truly is thankful for a lot, and certainly for this: thankful that Jim Rogers is not in a position to determine U.S. public policy.

--

Financial Editor Joseph Lazzaro is writing a book on the U.S. presidency and the U.S. economy.
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S&P 500-0.591,105.65

Last updated: November 24, 2009: 07:31 PM

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