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Disney's 'Race to Witch Mountain' loses its magic

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Last week at this time, I was reporting on the success of Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Race to Witch Mountain, starring Dwayne Johnson, an actor who used to be a full-time grappler known as The Rock for World Wrestling Entertainment (NYSE: WWE). The film opened in the number-one position, taking in $24.4 million.

Well, I'm sorry to say now that the project might not have the best legs in the business. It dropped to fourth place this time around after grossing an amount that, as of early estimates, is over 46% less than what it grossed in its debut weekend.

According to Boxofficemojo, Witch Mountain only captured about $13 million at domestic theaters in the past three-day period. Sure, a 46% decline isn't the steepest drop ever observed. In many respects, it's not that bad at all. But when you start at a relatively low opening figure like $25 million, then dropping 46% in the second weekend makes it a little more difficult to reach the magic number of $100 million. As a Disney shareholder, I was really hoping for the movie to do $100 million. The Mouse can always use another franchise to synergize with.

So what films were bold and arrogant enough to go head-to-head with The Rock?

Well, Nicolas Cage and Summit Entertainment came out on top with the thriller Knowing. I have to say, Knowing does possess a great concept, and it was backed by an excellent marketing campaign. The movie is estimated to have grossed $24 million as of this writing. I thought, though, that the movie would have done even better. Of course, we aren't in the most robust time period for movies. Still, I thought Knowing might break the $30 million mark.

Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) I Love You, Man came in second with $18 million. That picture, likewise, had a competent marketing campaign pumping its entertainment value.

Duplicity from General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal came in third and Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Watchmen came in fifth.

But the two big takeaways from this weekend's box-office stats are the following: First, Summit Entertainment could be on its way to becoming a force in the industry. Recall that the company delivered Twilight to the masses. As it becomes more comfortable with its business model and learns from its releases, it will probably expand and start to produce a very interesting slate of products. Perhaps someday it will be a publicly-traded equity like Lions Gate Entertainment (NYSE: LGF) and offer a direct play on the movie business.

The second takeaway for me is that Disney also needs to concentrate on producing non-branded thrillers such as Knowing (by non-branded I mean pictures without the Disney family logo attached). Maybe the recent distribution deal with DreamWorks will help out in this regard. I wasn't too thrilled with that deal, but since Disney wanted to reduce the output of its Touchstone label, maybe it can at least make some money off DreamWorks' pipeline.

Will Disney's Witch Mountain rebound next week and rise in the ranks? I doubt it, but anything's possible. I just hope it maintains a steady stream of grosses and slowly but surely goes higher. I want Disney's studio division to be as healthy as possible for upcoming quarters. And since the Jonas Brothers did lousy business with their movie, Disney execs had better keep a close eye on the studio and its marketing endeavors. With the recession hitting the parks, Disney is looking to other divisions to pick up the slack. The magic in Witch Mountain may be fading, but hopefully future releases will reinvigorate the studio.

Disclosure: I own Disney, GE; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 05:18 AM

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