Crude's awesome and it's really pushing up the whole complex. The stocks of the oils and the oil drillers are powering higher even as drilling is going down hard. Is it possible that the integrateds are right and the drilling stocks are wrong? Or should they both be going up together?
I wrestle over this issue every day because one of the main reasons why oil is going up, besides the endless "dollar-going-down-oil-safe-haven" trade that the media loves to go out with in order to sound smart, is that the drilling around the world has been cut back dramatically. I think that a deal like Suncor (NYSE: SU) (Cramer's Take) and Petro-Canada (NYSE: PCZ) (Cramer's Take) is great for the oils. It makes me recognize that there is value here in the group. I also believe the demand is real.
When I talked Monday night with Herbjorn Hansson, the CEO of my favorite tanker company, Nordic American Tanker (NYSE: NAT) (Cramer's Take), he confirmed that China is taking all the oil we can ship there, in part because they are buying cars like mad, no doubt because of their real stimulus plan that has put money to work and has given consumers money to spend on consumer durables like cars.
But the price of crude isn't high enough to reignite the drillers. Far from it. There will be, if anything, a merger like Petro-Canada. A price of $50 for crude, which only some of the oil companies believe in, isn't enough to reignite a lot of the abandoned drilling campaigns, and the meager natural gas price, coupled with the new imports of liquefied natural gas, make that onshore drilling opportunity that had been booming look very shut down.
Perhaps what is going on is something that Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) (Cramer's Take) suggested on its call: The decline in drilling is so great that oil will go up and therefore the cycle down will be truncated and go right back up.
I think it is all too wishful. I do believe that Transocean (NYSE: RIG) (Cramer's Take) can be played simply because the deepwater drilling takes so long that arguably we are going to get higher prices in 2012 and on. So why not hire Transocean?
Otherwise, call me skeptical. Keep buying companies like ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) (Cramer's Take) and BP (NYSE: BP) (Cramer's Take), and if you have to buy the drillers, buy Transocean and Schlumberger since Transocean's got the orders and Schlumberger's got the vision.
Random musings: Up real big here and I still salute Doug Kass and do not get tired of doing so. This is a very big rally and isn't done, even though -- because the last 200 points were put on artificially -- we can drop back down those 200 without doing any real damage.
Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was ConocoPhillips and BP.










