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GameStop issues a good report, but stock sells off -- buy it?

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GameStop (NYSE: GME) reported earnings for Q4 and the full fiscal year on Thursday. As expected, they were very good. Why shouldn't they be? The country is in love with video games, and systems by Sony (NYSE: SNE), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) are keeping a lot of people from all age groups occupied. Including myself. I just recently completed Resident Evil 5 for the PlayStation 3.

The quarterly results met analyst expectations. Earnings per diluted share rose over 17% to $1.34, once the effects of a merger are taken away. GameStop had released a preliminary earnings report, so I guess it would be difficult to beat analysts at this point. Instead, Wall Street can focus on the guidance. In that respect, management has the analysts beat. GameStop believes it will do somewhere between $0.40 and $0.42 per share in the first quarter. The market thought that only $0.39 per share was possible. Also, earnings for 2008 came in at the higher end of GameStop's guidance spectrum.

GameStop is doing well because of Wii fever and many hot titles. Besides the Wii Fit (which Mark Fightmaster recently wrote about) and various Super Mario Bros. titles, the great fiscal year was driven in part by Activision Blizzard's (NASDAQ: ATVI) Guitar Hero and Call of Duty franchises. Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) also helped out with its various sports titles, as well as the Rock Band system. And then there's Microsoft, which pushed a lot of Xbox 360 consoles out the door when it issued a price cut.

I like GameStop's prospects this year. The chain reported a same-store sales increase of 9.6% in Q4, so things seem to be running smoothly in terms of traffic coming in through the door. Not an easy accomplishment, given the economy. And keep in mind that a new model of the Nintendo DS is due in stores soon. Plus, GameStop has a thriving used-game business, although this is being challenged by online retailer Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN). Somehow, I don't think Amazon will be able to ruin GameStop's used marketplace.

Unfortunately, GameStop's stock isn't doing much today. As I write this, the shares are down by nearly 3%. That's disappointing given the fact that the major averages are firmly in the green. Would I buy GameStop? It's tough to say. If you have a long-term horizon, I'd say that you probably will do all right. In fact, GameStop's stock has done well over the year-to-date timeframe, so the present pause in price action could theoretically be a buying opportunity. However, with the recent market rally, I have to wonder if a broad sell-off is in the making. I'd be nervous about entering GameStop for a trade here, since a market sell-off would probably take the stock down. As always, it's your call, but if you do want to make GameStop a trade, use an appropriate stop.

Disclosure: I own Activision Blizzard, Microsoft; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 03:16 PM

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