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ConAgra beats estimates, sports a nice yield

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Supermarket staple ConAgra Foods (NYSE: CAG) reported earnings for the third quarter on Thursday. Wall Street was bullish on the company since the bottom-line performance beat the expectations of analysts. Shares of the stock closed up over 9% at the end of yesterday's trading session.

Sales increased slightly over 6% and net income came in at 40 cents per diluted share on an adjusted basis. That was good for an 18% growth rate on the bottom line. Market analysts were only counting on 36 cents per share. So, you can see why the market was excited.

Considering the current yield on ConAgra's stock (over 4%), and the fact that the market has been perking up based on some interesting economic data, I bet a lot of value investors rushed in to buy up the shares. Indeed, they do seem cheap.

The consumer-foods segment did well, while operations devoted to commercial foods saw a small decline in profits. ConAgra is probably benefiting from the recession, since people don't want to travel to restaurants and spend a lot of money on meals. Once you factor in fuel costs and tips for service, patronizing casual-dining establishments is not an attractive value proposition in a period where jobs are constantly being eliminated from corporations.

Of course, ConAgra has to worry about private-label brand competition. If people want to stretch their dollars as far as they can, then they oftentimes look to generic names, even if quality might not be up to par. Companies like Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB), Heinz (NYSE: HNZ), and General Mills (NYSE: GIS) are all finding this to be the case.

But ConAgra has a little brand equity on its side. As an example, it makes the popular Banquet line of foodstuffs. It also distributes Orville Redenbacher popcorn. It's a powerhouse in grocery stores.

Of course, one thing to keep in mind is that, back in 2006, ConAgra did reduce its dividend and sell off some assets in an effort to reposition itself for future growth. That perhaps might give certain investors pause. After all, hardcore dividend investors like to see payouts rise throughout the years without a hitch.

Still, I have to say that I thought ConAgra's Q3 numbers were good and that I can see the stock as a potential long-term investment. I would without a doubt wait for a pullback before starting a position. No way would I want to buy above $16 per share. I'd rather wait for the stock to give up yesterday's gains and then take it from there.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 08, 2009: 06:45 PM

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