Breather day? Or does this monster ever breathe?
We are seeing stress levels coming down: the magic VIX going under 40?, money coming in, industrials bouncing -- I watch International Paper (NYSE: IP) (Cramer's Take), Du Pont (NYSE: DD) (Cramer's Take), Packaging Corp. (NYSE: PKG) (Cramer's Take) and Ingersoll Rand (NYSE: IR) (Cramer's Take) for true industrial bounces. We are seeing the rails and the fertilizers -- two 2008 sectors -- regaining life and lifetime moves in a session.
But it was and is and always will be about the banks, and no matter what we do it will come back to them. They are the reason we got in trouble, and they are the reason we got out of trouble.
I know the meeting with the president is significant, and I believe the tone will be less populist and more of a "no footrace to give back TARP until we are a little stronger." But if we are going to get that then we have to have some reason for the banks not to give up TARP, and we all know that means forbearance. You keep the money until things get better and then you return it, because right now there is no real onus (beyond embarrassment) for taking it.
I think that you simply can't make it so some of them that can return it, therefore pressing it so others return it that can't and then get in trouble again. That's as politically unpalatable as what happened with AIG (NYSE: AIG) (Cramer's Take) and to a lesser extent Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take). It is the repeat bailouts that irritate, not the single shots.
That's why I now like Bank of New York (NYSE: BK) (Cramer's Take) and State Street (NYSE: STT) (Cramer's Take), because I think the government's going to suspend tough accounting and presume, as the bankers do, that most loans can be worked out to maturity or adjusted.
I think the rally in banks is about the pressure being off for now and letting them build earnings to improve balance sheets, something that makes sense if house price depreciation is off the table for now.
Nonetheless, that doesn't mean screaming higher. I said take some profits in the group yesterday, and I reiterate that today, but the ones to buy on weakness are STT and BK, not C or Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take). We need some earnings power to exhibit itself immediately, and those are the two that benefit the most from the generous accounting changes that are coming as part of the deal to keep TARP and get us through this.
Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.










