Palm's Pre may only sell half as much as Apple's iPhone on debut


Palm, Inc. (NASDAQ: PALM), the handheld PDA pioneer that has reportedly been on its deathbed several times in recent years, is about to launch the hotly-anticipated Pre on the Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) sometime this summer. From all accounts, the Pre may take on Apple, Inc.'s (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone as its best competition yet.


Palm's share price has doubled since the Pre was announced in January. Product buzz sometimes does this: all logic goes out the window and anticipation takes over. If the market believes all Palm's problems will go away once the Pre is released, maybe that is correct.

But then again, is the Pre a game changer like the iPhone was? No -- it's a great (maybe better) imitation. At least, that's how the market will see it. But you can't count out those that refuse to sign with iPhone's exclusive carrier -- AT&T, Inc. (NYSE: T) and have been looking for a solid competitor with another network.

Can Palm even match half the sales of the original iPhone when it is released into a completely different economic reality? The world has changed since 2007, and even with the glitz and power the Pre brings, it may still be only able to muster half of the iPhone's first-year sales. It would be nice to see Palm resurrected from the ashes by a single device (now that's a story), but the proof is in the pudding: let's see what the deal is a year from now.

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