Colgate-Palmolive downgraded on currency exposure


Shareholders of Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL) received some not-so-cool news on Wednesday. The consumer-products business was subjected to a downgrade courtesy of Linda Bolton Weiser of Caris & Co. The analyst changed the designation on Colgate-Palmolive from "Buy" to "Above Average." The effects of currency translations is what she's worried about. She believes that they could be a drag on earnings.

If you're a long-term shareholder, I probably wouldn't worry too much about this downgrade. The stock didn't react much to the news, dropping only modestly at the end of the trading session on Wednesday (it was down like 0.3%). Obviously Colgate-Palmolive, like Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Clorox (NYSE: CLX), and Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB), has great potential as a core investment because of its brand portfolio.

However, I do see the merit, to one degree or another, of the downgrade. I do think that currency issues will be plaguing companies this quarter. And it's not exactly old news. We've been hearing about this for a long time now.

Here's some reason for optimism, though: Colgate-Palmolive does have a good history of beating earnings projections. But you do have to wonder if competition from private-label brands, in addition to the negative impact from currency translations, is going to catch up with the company. Generic items have also seen their fair share of print lately.

The stock has been weak over several time periods. Year-to-date, three-month, one-month frames, they're all in the red, at the time of this writing. And Colgate-Palmolive is currently closer to a 52-week low than a 52-week high.

I'd say that there may indeed be more downside risk to Colgate-Palmolive. Of course, that's the trader in me talking. Like I say, I'd have to assume that the stock will generate decent returns over a multitude of years. It's not my favorite, though, of all the stocks mentioned here. I'm loyal to Procter and Gamble for the most part, as I have the most faith in that company's portfolio of supermarket wares. Colgate-Palmolive is a decent company, but as with any stock, it could break its 52-week low of $54.36 and head lower. Bear markets tend to do that to stocks, even the defensive ones.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: February 13, 2012: 11:19 AM

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