AOL Money & Finance

Rite Aid up on Q4 report -- can you buy it now?

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Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD), whose competitors include Walgreen (NYSE: WAG), CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS), and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), reported Q4 numbers today, and when you read through the release, you sort of come away with a decent feeling. You hear about improvements in this metric and that metric. You wonder if a turnaround might be in the offing. Then you look at the stock price and, even though it is currently being bid higher (it's up over 14% as I write), you come back down to earth and reality hits you in the face. Anything trading under a buck has to give you pause. Rite Aid is no different.

For the quarter, Rite Aid posted a 1.7% decrease in the top line. On an adjusted basis, the drugstore chain reported a loss of $0.14 per share. According to this source, Wall Street thought Rite Aid might lose $0.105 per share. The company is still adjusting to the Brooks Eckerd acquisition. Excluding that effect, same-store sales increased 0.8%. Including the asset, comps decreased 0.1%.

Like I said, the earnings release has statements from management that make you believe everything is proceeding smoothly. Hey, maybe everything is going to plan. Perhaps Rite Aid is indeed the proverbial diamond in the rough.

Excuse me, though, for being skeptical. At least from an investor viewpoint. At this point in time, I still see the shares as nothing more than lottery tickets. If you look at the performance stats at AOL Finance, you'll see that the stock is up something like over 80% in the last month (at the time of this writing, at least). So, if you had taken a roll of the dice, you'd be pretty happy at this moment.

Just remember, though, that taking a roll of the dice and winning means that you can just as easily take a roll of the dice and end up losing. What I'm trying to say is that Rite Aid is simply a volatile stock whose incredible jumps may not necessarily be indicative of great progress. The market's been very bullish lately, so naturally some equities are going to come along for the ride. When I consider the loss for the quarter, the loss for the fiscal year, the quality of the comps, Rite Aid's position against competitors CVS Caremark and Walgreen, and the fact that the stock price is so low that management wants a reverse split, I come away not feeling very confident in this particular investment idea. I've just never been one to go after tough turnaround situations. To the others who do such investing, best of luck. As for me, I'll continue to stay away from Rite Aid.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 05:43 AM

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