Agricultural entity Monsanto (NYSE: MON) reported Q2 numbers on Thursday. While some metrics were down, I came away from the earnings release thinking that the company is probably a good long-term holding. Short-term could be a different story, though, as the stock has had a run-up recently.
Sales increased 8% in the second quarter, but profits on a dollar basis decreased 3%. On an adjusted basis, however, net income beat Wall Street's expectations. Analysts were looking for $2.07 per share. Monsanto delivered $2.16 per share. Excellent.
What isn't so excellent is cash flow. Operational cash flow dropped 21% during the six-month period. Free cash flow declined by 27%. A higher inventory base hurt free-cash generation. Don't fret, though, because the amount of money that flowed into Monsanto's coffers was bountiful enough to cover both the dividend obligations and the share buybacks.
Like I say, you've got to be respectful of Monsanto's potential as a core holding. Steven Halpern recently highlighted some positive analyst commentary on the company. The thesis makes sense. Food will always be in demand, and such demand should increase over time. Plus, as Douglas McIntyre pointed out in February, the stock price has tumbled quite a bit, making the shares possibly attractive. In fact, at the time of his article, the price was around $80 per share. As I write this, Monsanto is trading under that level.
The short-term, though, is more of a question to me. The stock is up over 11% on the year-to-date frame, and I'd have to believe that it could be overbought at the moment. So you may want to consider this before jumping in all at once. Establishing a position over time in any stock is good strategy, especially in this market.
No matter what, though, farmers will always need products from companies like Monsanto, PotashCorp (NYSE: POT), and Mosaic (NYSE: MOS). If you're careful to pick up stocks like these when they're cheap, then you may be doing your portfolio a favor. (For a look at Mosaic, check out Joseph Lazzaro's recent article.)
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
4-04-2009 @ 3:29PM
RICH BRULATO said...
No cash flow equals bad investment!!