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Encana (ECA): Time to buy natural gas?

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"The global oil and gas majors have been brutally wounded since energy prices peaked last July," observes resources expert Eric Roseman.

In his Commodity Trend Alert, he explains, "We believe it's safe to start accumulating these companies again. We're buying one of the largest and best-managed natural gas companies in the world – Encana (NYSE: ECA)."

The advisor notes, "Based in Calgary, Alberta, Encana is Canada's largest natural gas distribution company based on stock market capitalization and natural gas production.

"ECA produces approximately 4.4 billion cubic feet of gas equivalent per day. More than 80% is natural gas - the cleanest burning of all fossil fuels.

"Natural gas is still the most optimal burning fuel – important because of the rising tide of environmental legislation and its relative abundance compared to crude oil. It's also politically feasible or an easy sell to the general public, unlike OPEC.

"Encana is the best way to play natural gas because of its huge revenues, leverage to natural gas prices and now, the sharply declining number of operational rigs in Alberta this year.

"Natural gas prices have collapsed a cumulative 70% since last summer as demand has declined amid a global industrial slump and previously robust production. But now storage supplies are declining and the number of gas rigs in production has plummeted.

"As gas prices have swooned over the last eight months companies have scaled back expansion plans, cut production and closed more than 750 rigs. A sharp decline in operational rigs does suggest an imminent rally is likely, especially with prices so depressed.

"Historically, natural gas and crude oil tend to shadow each other. With oil prices rising recently then perhaps natural gas might be at the cusp of an equally impressive rebound.

"Though it's hard to make a bullish case for domestic gas consumption this summer as consumers and companies cut demand, the odds of a major price spike occurring has risen markedly now that net supplies are declining following big production cutbacks.

"Also, I expect the Canadian dollar to rally on the heels of rising energy prices the second half of 2009; then ECA will get a lift because it's quoted in American dollars.

"The stock currently pays an effective yield of 3.8% and trades a whopping 57% below its all-time high. In my view, you can't argue with the value at this price."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a free daily overview of the favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 03:56 PM

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