Skepticism rises on Excel Maritime Carriers ahead of earnings

In fact, puts now outnumber calls among options set to expire within three months, as evidenced by the security's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio of 1.25. This indicator is hovering within 2 percentage points of an annual pessimistic peak, as short-term option players have rarely been more bearishly aligned.

In the April series, which is due to expire next Friday, peak put open interest of 7,718 contracts rests at the 2.50 strike. EXM would need to plummet about 57% from Tuesday's closing price before these contracts are in the money, which suggests that some traders are expecting a sharp post-earnings plunge. By comparison, peak call open interest of 5,507 contracts lies at the in-the-money April 5 strike, indicating that not many traders are betting on EXM to rally.

Elsewhere, short sellers are also loading up on bearish bets. Short interest on the security rose by 21% during the past month, and now accounts for a respectable 10% of the stock's available float.

Meanwhile, on the charts, EXM is extending a short-term rally along support from its 10-day and 20-day moving averages. The shares have gained nearly 91% from their March 3 nadir of $3 per share.

With the majority of speculative investors betting that EXM will plunge to a new annual low after earnings, the bar is set pretty low for tomorrow's report. Even if the company falls short of consensus expectations, downside could be limited as bears rush to take profits on their winning bets. Plus, if EXM does manage to top the Street's estimates, there's ample sideline cash in the form of short interest that could fuel a post-earnings pop.

Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.