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Bonds Are a 'Safe' Investment: A Big Lie Gets Even Bigger
As the three-day Easter weekend approaches, volume is declining as both traders and investors shy away from a market that is fraught with uncertainty.
Not only are the Q1 earnings in doubt, but longer-term economic analysis by the ChangeWave team indicates that we can expect to see a trading range of 700 to 900 on the S&P 500 for at least several months. And this is supported by my own technical analysis.
After a discussion of many of the risks peculiar to this economic cycle, the ChangeWave team appraises the big economic forces that "simply have to play out over time."
We conclude, "Most important of all are the declines in home prices, the crash in commercial real estate values, and the soaring unemployment. As long as this chilling trio continues to be the leading negatives, any hopes for a sustainable and meaningful economic growth -- and a rebound -- are out of the question. That's why you can expect to see a second whopper stimulus package either in late 2009 or early 2010."
The major indices have been drawn into the massive overhead at S&P 800 to 920, and now appear to be turning back. And one of the most overvalued sectors, the one that led the rally from the market's low at 667, is the financial sector.
This group of stocks is also referred to in our recent ChangeWave Investing weekly update, "While the bank stocks have run up, as if investors think all of their problems are behind them, the fact remains that the banks are fundamentally broken and the pain is far from over."
From a technical standpoint, as a group, their charts hang at the top of all of the internal indicators as excessively overbought.
For investors who have ridden the bank recovery to the current level, it is time to take profits or lighten up on longer-term positions in the financial sector. For traders, it is time to jump on the most undervalued financial exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
My Trade of the Day is the Direxion Financial Bear 3X Shares (NYSE: FAZ). With a financial sell-off, it may be time for the aggressive trader to go after FAZ.
Sam Collins is a contributor to OptionsZone.com.
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