Is Disney's Hannah Montana movie going to fail this weekend?

Posted Apr 10th 2009 8:00AM by Steven Mallas
Filed under: General Electric (GE), Time Warner (TWX), Walt Disney (DIS), Viacom (VIA), Film

So, Disney (NYSE: DIS) shareholders are bracing themselves for another big weekend at the box office. Remember when we were bracing ourselves for the release of the Jonas Brothers concert film? Yeah, that failure. I certainly hope Miley Cyrus does a lot better with her project.

But I have my doubts. Hannah Montana: The Movie opened Friday at over 3,100 domestic theaters. I just don't feel the kind of buzz I had hoped to be feeling at this point surrounding the movie. I don't have the sensation that I've been inundated by the feature's brand equity.

Then again, I'm not the target demographic. Perhaps Disney is reaching all tweens as we speak via the platforms that they frequent and I'm just not aware of it. Tough to tell. Nevertheless, I've seen some of the commercials, and they don't seem overwhelmingly exciting.

All I can do is deal with a couple facts. First, Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience grossed about $12 million during its debut weekend. The movie was released at the end of February. Know what its total worldwide gross is so far? Try $20 million. That's ugly. Such data does nothing to inspire me about the new Hannah Montana film.

Many out there will probably say that I'm comparing apples to oranges. Sure, it's possible. I mean, one is a concert film while the other has some plot-driven drama to go along with the musical theme (at least, I think it's a drama; maybe there's comedy in it, too, I'm not sure). When you look through retail stores, though, does Hannah Montana merchandise seem to have the same power it once did? For me, the answer is no. An article over at The Hollywood Reporter rightfully points out that Fast & Furious, distributed by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal, will most likely be the number-one movie this weekend.

Hannah Montana must come in second place. Otherwise, Disney is going to have to scramble to replace its aging fads with some new ones (well, it has to do that anyway, but if the movie opens very weakly, the obligation to make money off a fresh tween sensation will possess a higher degree of urgency). It'll need to dial up the Disney Channel's thermostat and get the incubator cooking once again. The Disney Channel is still a hot cable entity, but don't forget that there's so much competition out there for the attention of those fickle eyeballs. Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Nickelodeon is always on the prowl to steal viewers, and a lot of kids find Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Cartoon Network to be cooler than the Mouse's programming.

I'm hoping the movie can open, at the very least, north of $30 million. Expectations, from what I've read, call for something closer to $20 million. Shareholders should pray it does better than that. Much better. Not only did that Jonas Brothers project fail, but Race to Witch Mountain faded pretty fast too. I'm sure CEO Bob Iger is rallying the corporate troops to get out there and sell this movie. Will they succeed? Stay tuned to the box office...

Disclosure: I own Disney, GE; positions can change without notice.

Tags: Bob Iger, BobIger, box office, BoxOffice, cartoon network, CartoonNetwork, DIS, Disney, fast and furious, FastAndFurious, featured, GE, general electric, GeneralElectric, hannah montana, HannahMontana, inthenews, jonas brothers, JonasBrothers, Miley Cyrus, MileyCyrus, nickelodeon, race to witch mountain, RaceToWitchMountain, Time Warner, TimeWarner, TWX, Universal, VIA, Viacom

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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

4-10-2009 @ 4:33PM

Jessy Scholl said...

Your expections are too steep. Disney is hoping to see a $20 million opening weekend for the movie. While that wouldn't be enough for first place, it would still be a good showing. Yes Disney is tempering expections, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a $40 million opening and first place for the weekend due to the target audience being out and about.

4-11-2009 @ 1:29PM

bcrnbs said...

hanny who?

4-11-2009 @ 2:16PM

heresmyopinion said...

"Why is it ALWAYS about the money? Why can't it be...about giving families something to enjoy together. I see the movie and I REALLY liked it, they should make more films like that~ Wholesome, with good values, and morals, something that we all need a little more of! Thank You! Disney...your heart is on the right track, just don't put so much thought on the money part. I'm for QUALITY, over quanity; ANYDAY~"

4-11-2009 @ 3:34PM

David said...

Aren't her 15 minutes up?

4-11-2009 @ 5:00PM

Hannah Bonetana said...

Disney is already planning a remake of the Elvis classic Jailhouse Rock with Miley Cyrus. They hope the catfight scene with Miley and the prison lesbian cellblock leader will bring a more older male audience to her next film. Don't give up on the Jonas Brothers. Disney plans to use them for the soundtrack of their upcoming Davey and Goliath 3D animated feature where the hand of God reaches out from the screen to rescue Davey and his dog from Somali pirates.

4-11-2009 @ 6:04PM

shaunisadirty said...

Ok, I understand the family thing, good vaues morals blah blah blah, but lately all this Disney crap is not wholesome family entertainment. It's just lame crap. It's all marketing and money, just like everything else, only crappy.

4-11-2009 @ 6:11PM

steve silverman said...

This movie is great for the kids,,, it's funny... The blue golf cart that miley uses during the movie has been donated to "Fiesta of the Spanish Horse" and will be raffled off, proceeds go to cancer research. Go to www.fiestaspanishhorse.org to see the golf cart and to get your raffle tickets. The raffle will be held Mat 2, 2009... Oh Yeah, one more thing, Miley has autographed the front of the golf cart...

4-11-2009 @ 6:31PM

tigermammabear said...

hey

4-11-2009 @ 6:54PM

Dfilson1 said...

The movie needs to bomb. It'll show the know-it-alls at Mousetown that this TV brat isn't all she's cracked up to be. Of course there'll be the dutiful suburban moms who think that it will be great bonding to take their pre-pubescent daughters out for a Hannah Day...and they alone should give it a good opening weekend. But from what I saw in the trailer alone, it is way overproduced in the first place. I guess kids don't give a care about quality much anyway. Overall, I'm just tired of she and her father as well be shoved in our faces day after day. Same goes for Beyonce. Are there any other people in show business these days besides the hoochie and the future hoochie?

4-11-2009 @ 7:27PM

caybaybay135 said...

im 15 and lets just say (most) people at my skool and my grade arnt lookin forward to this movie. we used to be into hannah montana wen it first came out but we've moved on to bigger and better things that actually deserve our attention. it went from super popular show you would tune in every day to watch to the show your 6yr old sister watches...... im sorry but it kinda lost its main fan base...
~casey

4-11-2009 @ 8:41PM

Bob said...

It's Miley!!!!!!!!!!!!!

4-11-2009 @ 8:44PM

Bob said...

I want to but that golf cart, and sniff the front seat where she sat!!

4-11-2009 @ 10:04PM

Tim said...

A pretty solid $17.4 million Friday - looks like $40 mil is a sure thing (the budget couldn't have been $40 mil for this film)

4-11-2009 @ 10:42PM

Frank Crisci said...

Wasn't her 15 minutes of fame up 15 months ago..??

4-12-2009 @ 12:34AM

Trish said...

I don't want to sound mean because I know basically she is a kid. BUT, I can't take her anymore. She is not that talented. Her attitude and self worship is sickening. I just think the little fad is ending and it is time. Miley, go home to Tennesee. It's time. It's sickening also the way the photogs say she informs them everytime she moves. Now we know why we saw her constantly.

4-12-2009 @ 6:40AM

laury said...

i saw the movie and loved it,haha,i took my little bro as an excuse,im ashamed that i actually enjoyed it,haha.its all good its a movie for kids so the targeted arent adult,but some might enjoy it