The entire country has been struggling with the current recession, and while we are still not out of the woods just yet, there are signs that the economic free fall is at least close to coming to an end.This morning President Obama stated that we were starting to see "glimmers of hope" in the economy, claiming that we are "starting to see progress" on a number of fronts. While Obama admits that the economy is still under "severe stress", he noted that we are seeing a boom in demand for mortgage loans and refinancing, and a thaw in some credit markets.
President Obama is not alone in his guarded optimism on our economic future. Economists in the most recent Wall Street Journal forecasting survey share in Obama's view that things are starting to correct themselves.
Economists are now forecasting that the current recession is most likely going to come to an end this September, but still warn that unemployment will probably not start to ease until the middle of next year.
While it is good to hear that economists feel that the recession is nearing its end, unemployment is probably the issue that most of us are most interested in hearing about. Only 12% of the economists in the survey believe that unemployment will start to decline this year. In March, unemployment reached 8.5% across the country, and most economists believe that by this December that will increase to around 9.5%, before finally starting to ease during the middle of next year.
For sure, we have lost a lot of jobs over the past year and a half and it is going to take a lot of time to get back to the levels that we were at in 2007 when unemployment was under 5%. According to Joseph Lavorgna of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., the economy is going to have to grow at around 4% a year, for six years before we get back to where we were in 2007. Not the best case scenario, but at least the slide seems to be close to an end.
The recession has definitely been felt in households across America, and people have been doing whatever they can to deal with the current situation. The question is, will people continue with their changes once the recession comes to an end? It reminds me of how everyone was driving slower, and looking for ways to cut their gasoline usage when gas was running over $4 a gallon. Now that gasoline is around $2 a gallon, we have seen signs that consumers are going back to their old ways. Will this also happen with our old habits that helped spurred the recession? Will we go back to spending more than we can afford, buying houses that are out of our price range, and running up huge credit card bills? Let's hope this is not the case.
What impact has the recession had on your household, and what changes have you made in your consumer spending and savings to help combat the recent tough times?











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
4-10-2009 @ 6:21PM
FiddlerOnTheRoof said...
For the sake of this country, and the sake of the world, I sincerely hope that this recession will not end this year, and that an ensuing depression occurs. There is evidence to suggest that this will happen: http://counterpunch.com/whitney04102009.html
I am not hoping for this due to a desire to see people, families, and the world over suffer. Rather, it's because of the precise reasons cited here: a return to normal too soon will result in a sloshing back into the hum-drum of everyday, placated, greedy existence. Those who laughed then must weep long and hard. Lessons are learned over time, upon reflection, remorse, and a desire to change their lives for the better. America has learned that it has been at the mercy of mortgage brokers, hedge fund managers, and global financiers for at least a decade, driving up home prices, bringing stocks to soaring heights only to crash them. Americans are justly outraged. But, if given the chance, and knowing what we know, would we choose to live in the world of knowledge, or return to the 2007 level of gluttony? My guess is that people would go right back. Because we have not seen enough hardship. Because we have not recognized our own culpability. And because we have ceased to be an America that stands for justice. The harder we fall, the stronger we rise.
There is no recovery without rebirth.
4-10-2009 @ 6:44PM
Pam said...
Since any rate increases in utilities, property taxes, gasoline etc... come out of our families food/entertainment budget, we have stopped buying any popular name brand items and have been pleasantly surprised that the quality is as good and sometimes better and the much lower prices are a blessing, There is nothing leftover for any outside the home entertainment. As far as the increasing number of job losses, why don't companies fore go "profits as usual" and instead do a little sacrificing of their own and delay cutting up to 5 jobs each for the next 12 months starting now. One year can't hurt most existing companies that have made it through this far.
4-10-2009 @ 7:22PM
Pam said...
FiddlerOnTheRoof, I hope what you state is not true. I hope people have started to come to their senses about what is most important in life. That owning the best and the most "objects" you can is not what makes you happy or sucessful. I left my job of 17 years in the fall of 2006 because I came to the realization that all the money I was bringing into the household was going out for Child Care, foolish "things" and expensive convienience foods (because neither me or my husband had the energy or was too stressed at the end of our work days to prepare home cooked meals). Nothing was really being saved for a rainy day. When I quit, it was scary at first. We went outside and took long walks, which really help ease the stress. We took it one day at a time and now we are the happiest we have been in years, we have great fun together. My husband is my hero. I am here for my him when he comes home, instead of both of us stressed and staring at the wall, I can now hear what he has to say about his day and I support him 100%. The children don't want me to go back to work. We all appriciate so much more now and to have a little extra something here and there is indeed a real treat. It's great. As long as we can still pay for the basics needed, I may just stay unemployed and let someone, who has to support their family with the basics, have a job.
4-10-2009 @ 7:47PM
FiddlerOnTheRoof said...
Hi Pam,
Your story inspires me. I hope I'm wrong too (if I'm being a little too hyperbolic, it's only for a dramatic flair). I truly believe that your example is precisely the one this country needs, and the message we need to hear repeatedly: how living with less makes us better people, better in our relationships, and ultimately, better Americans.
The only emotion stronger than my fear of our return to the narcissism of the past is the hope that we are a nation of caring, loving, and self-sacrificing individuals. I wish everyone's family the best who have learned to live better, and I read on a daily basis the kinds of struggles working Americans are going through, such as health care costs: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123620847691933901.html
Or people whose standards of living has altered drastically: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/01/us/01survival.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&emc=eta1
And many more like them.
America has been moved from one big sensational story to the next, anywhere from 9/11 to Hurricane Katrina. The longer we have to respond and reflect on how we arrived here, the firmer the footsteps that we take will be when we move toward a better country and a better world.
So, once again, I am humbled by your story and stories like yours. Thank you.
4-10-2009 @ 8:23PM
william lindblad said...
fiddler, you have a point, but there is a lot more involved. Are we returning to what started this mess? Possibly, and with government help. Out of the ashes the phoenix may be rising - or so it looks - and looks are frequently deceptive. That is the "glimmer of hope". Specifically, it will be that the next report form the NAR will provide robust sales. Keep in mind that they don't report
ReFi, just sales contracts, not necessarily those that go to close. The big question is since the government has intervened in this area and rates are now at all time lows, auctions and cheap prices aplently, are we back in speculation mode? I think so, and if true, we a simply digging a deeper hole. We have to keep in mind that not all speculators went belly up. Most just took a hit and are now being put in a position to recoup losses. Greed and stupidity still reign.
What did I do to do CYA. in difference to the blog? Got out of all market securities in 2007. Moved. Went from renting a villa on the golf course to home ownership (a FDIC default bargain). I am at 2000+ elev and I don't think the tide will get this high. I have a large garden and two water sources. I ALSO KNOW WHAT A CANNING JAR IS and how to do it without fear of botulisim.
4-10-2009 @ 10:21PM
ij70 said...
Nope.
4-11-2009 @ 12:35AM
Pickypain said...
Yea, but at what price.
4-11-2009 @ 10:33AM
farmer0904 said...
got to stop the greed, keep gas prices lower ( one of many big reasons we're All in this mess ) re cap electric rates, here in Baltimore Maryland, a normal house hold is paying 300 to 600 a month for electric and for the poor among us that is 1/3 of their take home pay, that must be corrected ASAP. either rise the min wage 2 dollars or put caps back on electric companies with rates they had 3 years ago. Stop the greed of wall street , stop using credit, the reagonnomics of credit spending is anther big reason we're here and house prices are still too high. home owners need to stop being so damn greedy about a few thousand dollars when in most cases half of the sellers brought their homes for a lot less of what they are now listen their homes for.. most homes in the early 80's and 70's were affordable to the messes , now only the higher middle class could afford a home. until gas prices, home prices, fair wage prices and utility prices are all working together then we will end right back in this mess . the GOP has lead this country into a Gucci handbag of hell in the last 30 years brought on credit that could never be repaid under the conditions that the GOP allow this country to get into, the rich must give if they ever want to return to making money!
4-11-2009 @ 12:26PM
Kent said...
As this article rightly suggests, the true measure of the recession ending is employment and consumer spending that goes hand-in-hand. FI's may get rid of their toxic assets, but if the consumer isn't on the fast track with them, the economy will recover at a snail's pace. At least for me, this economic melt-down experience has been traumatic as well as carthartic and doubt I will return to the old ways with how I managed my money and credit. I now understand the mindsets of our parents and grandparents who lived through the Great Depression. At a minimum, it's a wake-up call for us baby-boomers.
4-12-2009 @ 6:32PM
Pravin said...
End of Recession ....doesn't look so.
On Good Friday 2 banks failed.
Still many layoffs are getting reported and more & more companies are filing for bankruptcy protection.
These thins need to be stopped first.
There are many sites tracking the layoffs.
But I found PortalSeven which has much more data and presented in a good way.
This site keeps track and reports on layoffs, bank failures and bankruptcies.
The urls are :
Latest layoffs : http://portalseven.com/Layoffs
Banks failed in 2009 : http://portalseven.com/Failed-Banks-2009
Recent Bankruptcies : http://portalseven.com/Chapter11
You would like to track effects of ongoing economic crisis on this site.
Do check it.
4-13-2009 @ 1:35PM
Iridium said...
The sad truth is that we never recovered from the Clinton recession. The bogus bubble created during the late '90s caused a recession that is still going on. For many the recovery in 2002-2003 never really increased thier standard of living. For many real income declined during the false recovery.
The massive housing and credit bubble was the only thing that created paper wealth during the recovery. Without the insane increase in home values there wouldn't have been any money to finance the economy for the past 6 years. This was not real wealth.
Until we get real wage growth we will not have a real economic recovery. We will not get real wage growth unless all of the major corporations fail. The mega corporation exists only to destroy wealth, not to create it.