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Is the end to the recession on the horizon?

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recessionThe entire country has been struggling with the current recession, and while we are still not out of the woods just yet, there are signs that the economic free fall is at least close to coming to an end.

This morning President Obama stated that we were starting to see "glimmers of hope" in the economy, claiming that we are "starting to see progress" on a number of fronts. While Obama admits that the economy is still under "severe stress", he noted that we are seeing a boom in demand for mortgage loans and refinancing, and a thaw in some credit markets.


President Obama is not alone in his guarded optimism on our economic future. Economists in the most recent Wall Street Journal forecasting survey share in Obama's view that things are starting to correct themselves.

Economists are now forecasting that the current recession is most likely going to come to an end this September, but still warn that unemployment will probably not start to ease until the middle of next year.

While it is good to hear that economists feel that the recession is nearing its end, unemployment is probably the issue that most of us are most interested in hearing about. Only 12% of the economists in the survey believe that unemployment will start to decline this year. In March, unemployment reached 8.5% across the country, and most economists believe that by this December that will increase to around 9.5%, before finally starting to ease during the middle of next year.

For sure, we have lost a lot of jobs over the past year and a half and it is going to take a lot of time to get back to the levels that we were at in 2007 when unemployment was under 5%. According to Joseph Lavorgna of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., the economy is going to have to grow at around 4% a year, for six years before we get back to where we were in 2007. Not the best case scenario, but at least the slide seems to be close to an end.

The recession has definitely been felt in households across America, and people have been doing whatever they can to deal with the current situation. The question is, will people continue with their changes once the recession comes to an end? It reminds me of how everyone was driving slower, and looking for ways to cut their gasoline usage when gas was running over $4 a gallon. Now that gasoline is around $2 a gallon, we have seen signs that consumers are going back to their old ways. Will this also happen with our old habits that helped spurred the recession? Will we go back to spending more than we can afford, buying houses that are out of our price range, and running up huge credit card bills? Let's hope this is not the case.

What impact has the recession had on your household, and what changes have you made in your consumer spending and savings to help combat the recent tough times?

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Last updated: November 24, 2009: 02:11 PM

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