Has the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii peaked in Japan? Has it peaked period? It depends on who you ask, but if you ask Nintendo's CEO, the answer could be "yes."
There has been a lot of coverage and commentary about the sales drop that the Wii experienced in Japan last month. According to this source, the The Wii sold 63% fewer units on a year-over-year basis for a five-week period ending March 29.
To add insult to injury, arch-nemesis Sony (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3 outsold it during the same timeframe. Sony moved almost 147,000 consoles, while the Wii sold a little over 99,000 systems. That has to hurt. Indeed, Nintendo CEO Satoru Iwata made some blunt comments concerning the troubled state of the Wii in his country. He says that the Wii is currently "in the most unhealthy condition since it hit the Japanese market." And he implies that Japanese gamers may have lost some of their attraction to the system and its novelty.
Well, that sure is a mouthful. For those of you who have considered investing in the company's stock, I can imagine that sentiment is not putting you in much of a buying mood, either. I certainly wouldn't want to be buying the ADRs right now if the company's own CEO is saying his country is bored with his product. And although I'm hesitant to even bring it up since it was a lousy indicator the last time I used it: In my area, there is an abundance of Wii systems. Any parent who wants one to give to their kids as an Easter present will have no problem.
The Wii, however, is going to play second fiddle in the headlines to the new hardware in town, at least for the moment. I speak, of course, of the Nintendo DSi. The portable gaming device, which includes a camera and other enhanced capabilities, has moved over 600,000 units in the U.S. and Europe. Nintendo seems to have created a juggernaut, and what it wants to do now is leverage the popularity of the DS franchise to keep sales of the Wii going; it's sort of like the iPod serving as a gateway to consumer acceptance of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) computers. If it can hold off from offering the market a price cut for as long as possible, then it will be beneficial to the gaming giant's bottom line.
Maybe Nintendo should explore the possibility of a price cut after the next Christmas season. Maybe scale back production on the Wii and try to keep the price where it is. Still, things are becoming more and more competitive this console cycle. If the brand equity of the Wii really starts to fade not only in Japan but in the U.S. as well, then Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) $199 Xbox 360 model will start to look increasingly attractive to parents.
We'll just have to wait and see how the scenario shapes up. Nintendo can focus on the DSi launch and simply keep an eye on the sales trends. Investors, however, should probably be wary of the stock for now.
Disclosure: I own Microsoft and have covered calls written against the shares; positions can change without notice.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
4-10-2009 @ 4:14PM
Jessy Scholl said...
The only comment I have here is that Nintendo is based in a smaller country than the United States so it is likely that there are too many WII's nationwide. Regardless, I wouldn't worry if I were Nintendo because Sony isn't in that competitive of position with the Playstation 3. It is Microsoft and the next generation XBOX (the 720?) that would worry me more if I were Nintendo.
4-17-2009 @ 1:22AM
Chris said...
Jessy, You are correct. With Nintendo hitting the 50 million Wii's sold earlier this year the Nintendos sales will drop a bit.
Also your correct Sony isn't in a competitive position , nor is Xbox 360/Live. With the release of Wii Motion + for the Wii I suspect they will now focus more on games now that everything is laid on the table. This years game releases for the Wii is off the chart. 2 big hitters to watch out for is Punch-Out(Next Level Games) and The Conduit(Sega)