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Should you be looking at Hasbro?

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I was looking at The Hollywood Reporter the other day and came across an item about Hasbro (NYSE: HAS) and an innocent little DVD deal it made that involved some animated product, including old episodes of the cartoon version of Transformers. That reminded me that the Transformers sequel, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, is due out at the end of June. That further reminded me that it might be time to take a look at the stock of Mattel's (NYSE: MAT) archrival.

Hasbro had a rough time last Christmas. When I covered the toy maker's earnings in February, I noted that they experienced a significant drop and that they missed analyst expectations. But I also noted something else: the company's shares rallied on the bad earnings release. That gave me pause. Could this be an interesting indication about Hasbro's future? Was the stock a buy?

Well, I was reticent to buy at the time. The shares did pull back, and as of last week, they were still not far off the 52-week low of $21.14. Hasbro closed at $26.86 last Thursday. The 52-week high is more than $41.

A few things are going through my mind. First, there's been talk about the market potentially seeing the light at the end of the recessionary tunnel (see Michael Fowlkes' article on the subject). Second, let's go back to the new Transformers movie that will be in theaters in a couple months. It is being distributed by Viacom (NYSE: VIA), and with the box office doing very well as of late, according to reports, one might assume that there is a reasonable chance that the movie will be a hit and that the toy line will perform in retail (and remember that the stocks of many retailers have been perking up). Third, Hasbro has a decent dividend yield and dividend history, and like I say, it is closer to a 52-week low than a 52-week high.

As Michael Fowlkes points out, even if the recession ends this year, the lingering effects of unemployment will still be with us for a long, long time. Actually, I should have used three longs. No matter, everyone knows what I mean. So I don't expect that earnings will be great for all companies in the next several quarters. The economy still has a significant amount of pain to work through, and consumer confidence will continue to be weak.

However, as we all know, the market is a discounting beast, and you've got to start to look at stocks before the market does its fiercest round of discounting to the upside. Hasbro's shares have been strong recently, and it could be an interesting trade ahead of the Transformers flick. It also could be a good long-term holding at these levels. So I do think some due diligence is warranted on Hasbro. I would, however, try to pick up shares only on a pullback, if Hasbro passes the due diligence test.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 08, 2009: 11:31 PM

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