The second big story of the weekend besides Montana's surprising success is the surprising weakness of the new Seth Rogen comedy Observe and Report, distributed by Time Warner (NYSE: TWX). It only brought in about $11 million, and it came in fourth place. I thought this one would debut higher since Rogen seems to be on a roll.

Going back to Montana, it's great to see her in first place since I am a Disney shareholder. But I'll say a couple things about this. First, when I saw the Friday results, I knew the film would probably be number one, but the $17 million figure she was credited with that day almost implied to me that a $50 million opening was possible. I know, that might sound way off, but it's what went through my head when she earned almost as much on Friday as some industry people thought she would earn the entire three-day weekend.

I thought that, with the Easter holiday, maybe she'd see a good Saturday and Sunday performance. Actually, the movie saw a decline in grosses all through the weekend. Even though such a pattern is not necessarily unusual, I think that this is something to note since Montana started so strongly. Take a look at the opening-weekend pattern of Monsters vs. Aliens for a comparison. I'll bet that other analysts will pick up on this fact, too.

The second thing I'll say is that Disney should now, without a doubt, start to unwind the Montana trade. The media company should exploit the film for all its worth, but I think her reign as tween queen is coming to a natural conclusion. Disney's capital should probably be allocated elsewhere, to new and upcoming franchises.

As an example, I'd like to see a big push for a property that I think might work in the marketplace if appropriately positioned: Wizards of Waverly Place. I've just started to see merchandise based on this Disney Channel program show up in retail in a more significant fashion (at least in the retail locations in my area) and I believe that the fantasy theme attached to the series might be appealing to tweens. And, obviously, Wizards is trying to grab some of the equity that has been propagated for this subject matter by the Harry Potter phenomenon.

Will Montana help Disney's stock? Probably not, unless it gives the Disney brand a little push this spring/summer and acts as a driver for the studio's summer slate. Strength in the movie releases might help other divisions of the company, and the market might recognize that fact. So you could theoretically get a trade out of Disney if that happens. Of course, it's too early to say if that will occur. For now, shareholders can simply enjoy the fact that Disney was number-one over the Easter holiday and that it beat the expectations of Hollywood's movers and shakers.

Disclosure: I own Disney, GE; positions can change without notice.