Despite earlier skepticism Dendreon (DNDN) proves itself -- shares soar


Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN) shares more than tripled today soaring from a previous close of $7.30 to $22.10. By noon DNDN traded up over 130% to around $17 a share. The company reported this morning that its experimental prostate cancer treatment, Provenge, was significantly successful in prolonging patient survival. This may clear the way for the long-awaited regulatory approval for the drug.

Dendreon plans to submit additional information to the FDA in the fourth quarter as part of its new drug application, meaning approval could come with six months, by mid- 2010.

More than one million men in the United States have prostate cancer, with an estimated 186,320 new cases in 2008. Currently there are limited treatment options for men with advanced, metastatic prostate cancer, which explains the excitement over Dendreon's study results.

Provenge has blockbuster potential if it is approved for marketing with some analysts estimating sales may reach $1 billion a year, providing both top line and bottom line growth for Dendreon in the coming years.

And this may not be all that's Dendreon could have to offer, as the drug could be leveraged to develop similar products to treat breast, colon, bladder, kidney and multiple other forms of cancer.

Still, not all analysts feel the love, at least before the results were released. For example, none of the seven analysts who track the stock recommends buying shares, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, and Reuters. Another, at Brean Murray wasn't convinced Monday ahead of the results and remained unconvinced today. On the other hand, Merriman upgraded DNDN today to Neutral from Sell, as did Zacks analyst, who upgraded it to Buy with a $25 target.

Already earlier this month Dendreon shares surged higher, and on Monday activity was already heavy with share price jumping 18% and call volume increasing. The stock has a large short interest, which measured about 22% of its float, at the end of March. So some of the gains today could be due to some short covering.

With the stock up 323% over the last month, is there more to come? Well, Dendreon could have other successes on the horizon, not to mention some interested suitors now, but it's hard to believe this kind of performance could repeat itself.
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Last updated: February 13, 2012: 05:50 AM

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