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Earnings preview: How will Google do in Q1?

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Search giant Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), whose colleagues include Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) and Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) AOL, will be reporting first-quarter earnings today after the market closes up shop. The market isn't expecting a lot of growth, with estimates pegging Google's earnings at $4.92 per share, only eight pennies more than the previous year's results.

Google, however, went beyond Wall Street's calls in the last two quarters. Considering the fact that the stock has had a run-up the last few months, I expect that the market is looking for good things from the tech company. I think there's a good chance we'll see a beat.

What should investors be looking for in terms of internal metrics? Well, for Google it's always been he company's advertising model and how that's faring. Google is a leader in search and has done well with paid clicks. But I'm going to be really interested in any comments the company might make concerning its YouTube asset.

As everyone knows, that has been one controversial acquisition. Have a look at Brian White's discussion of the video-sharing platform to see what Google is up against when it comes to this property. YouTube recently signed a content deal with Disney (NYSE: DIS). I'd like to know what other kinds of content deals are on Google's wish list. And how can the YouTube monetization model be changed for the better?

Plus, I'm sure management will be quizzed on other acquisition paradigms. Does the company really want to buy Twitter, for example? What about Facebook? Exactly how does the company plan to grow the bottom line in the future?

The business has generated a lot of cash over the years. The cash-flow statement is something investors will want to study. In the end, though, it'll be the bottom line that will receive a lot of the press. If the company can beat and do okay on the top line (I've read that there's some concern over the revenue number), then I think the shares could rise, even though the stock has already had a run-up.

Personally, I think Google is probably one of the better earnings trades out there (full disclosure, though: I don't have any money on the line in that regard). I say this because of recent bullishness in the markets; it seems like traders could be in the mood to buy a well-regarded name if it doesn't screw its quarter up too much.

Don't get me wrong, the recession is still out there and is ready to continue to make problems for as many companies as possible, but my gut tells me shares could rise after the earnings are out. Of course, make your own decision in terms of playing Google before the report (and do keep in mind that there is risk to the revenue number, as I've mentioned; that's very important to note as a risk).

Disclosure: I own Disney and Microsoft; I have covered calls against the Microsoft position; all positions can change without notice.

Symbol Lookup
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DJIA+30.6910,464.40
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S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 27, 2009: 07:12 AM

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