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Reason No. 4 to avoid gold: Gold was dead for 20 years

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Reason #4 to avoid gold: Gold was dead for 20 yearsFor more than 20 years, the price of gold did nothing. If you invested in gold, you wasted your time. That all changed with fears of inflation and hedge fund speculation several years ago.

Today, the church of gold is full of believers. What changed?

Nothing really except we have experienced an unprecedented upheaval in the global economy and financial markets. No wonder there has been a flight to gold.

The trouble is that the gold rush is not likely to last. In fact, there has been tremendous resistance for gold at $1,000 per ounce. Do you really want to buy at the top? I don't think so.

Once the economy stabilizes and we get a return to normalcy with respect to the business cycle (in other words an ending of the boom/bust period), gold will go back into hibernation. Demand for jewelry cannot absorb the current supply.

As such, a strong dollar is likely to absolutely destroy the price of gold. To me that is the far more likely outcome today.

Strong dollar, you say? Yes, a strong dollar in the U.S. despite the fear in the market and so-called potential for inflation is still the most likely occurrence. And gold isn't the only thing negatively impacted by a stronger dollar.

A stronger dollar is also impacting stocks tied to the global economy. Case in point is 3M (MMM), one of my 10 Stocks to Avoid.

Reason No. 5 to avoid gold.

Jamie Dlugosch is a contributor to InvestorPlace.com.

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 10:20 AM

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