Hannah Montana film sees big drop in second weekend -- yes, the fad is over


Well, my friends, last week I discussed the better-than-expected box office results of Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Hannah Montana: The Movie. The project grossed well over $30 million in its opening weekend and ranked in first place. Looks like the half-life was short on this one.

According to Boxofficemojo, the early estimates for this past weekend place Montana in fourth place with roughly $12 million. This represents a huge dive of 60%. The film does not have any legs, let me tell you. Disney shareholders should be disappointed (I'm one, and I'm very disappointed).

Last week I was wondering if the fad was just about over. This week, I've got my answer. Put a fork in the franchise, it's done! One thing I should mention, though, is that the estimates are tight this week. Monsters vs. Aliens, produced by DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) and distributed by Viacom (NYSE: VIA), and Fast and Furious, distributed by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal, which ranked third and fifth respectively, also were credited with amounts close to $12 million. So, the movies could conceivably shift their places on the chart once final tallies are calculated.

In a bit of irony, Disney's High School Musical star, Zac Efron, powered Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) fantasy 17 Again to number one. It wasn't a huge gross at $24 million, but the film nevertheless did its job. I suppose one could argue that Efron took a bit of thunder away from Montana's second weekend since he conceivably would attract a lot of the same fans, but I'll stick with my fad-is-history thesis.

In second place was another GE product, State of Play. GE and NBC Universal obviously had a nice weekend with two films in the top five. NBC Universal needs all the help it can get if the segment's earnings are any indication.

Going a bit lower on the list, we see that Lions Gate Entertainment (NYSE: LGF) sort of bombed with Crank: High Voltage. The movie came in sixth and took in about $6 million. As a comparison, the first Crank did over $10 million in its opening weekend a couple years ago.

We're getting closer and closer to the summer box-office season. I'm sure most investors can't wait for it to start. Time Warner has had some interesting momentum behind it since its reverse split, but I'm not sure how long that will last. Disney appears to be an interesting trade on pullbacks. None of the stocks mentioned here, however, are strong buys to me at this specific moment in time.

Disclosure: I own Disney, GE; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: February 13, 2012: 10:23 AM

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