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Teck Cominco misses 1Q estimates, offers cloudy outlook on coal sales

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Industrial metals issue Teck Cominco Limited (NYSE: TCK) is on the upswing following the release of its first-quarter earnings.

The company reported net income of C$241 million, or 50 Canadian cents per share; on an adjusted basis, earnings arrived at 47 cents per share, falling slightly short of analysts' predictions for 51 cents per share. Revenue for the period rose to C$1.71 billion.

Included in the report were several warnings. "It is difficult to forecast coal sales volumes at this stage in the economic cycle and their effect on results for the coming year is uncertain at this time," confessed TCK. For 2009, the firm tentatively expects to sell between 18 and 20 million tons of coal.

Additionally, the company said it's in negotiations to amend the terms of a bridge loan due October 29. As of April 29, US$9.2 billion was still outstanding, and TCK admitted, "There is no assurance that our expected cash flows from operations in combination with asset sales and other steps being taken will allow us to meet these revised obligations as they become due." (Shortly after the earnings report, TCK shares were halted as the company reported amendments and extensions to its bridge loans.)

Despite the far-from-upbeat quarterly report, TCK is firmly on positive ground in today's trading. Short interest on the security rose by 31% during the most recent reporting period to account for 2.4% of the stock's float, so some of today's gains could be attributable to short covering activity.

However, option volume is notably quiet today. TCK has recently emerged as a favorite among bullish option players; during the past 10 days, traders on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) have bought to open 22,221 calls, compared to just 1,326 puts.

Since the shares have added 50.6% year-to-date, this enthusiasm is to be expected. Unfortunately, the stock's positive momentum seems to be dwindling, with TCK poised to finish its second consecutive session beneath its 10-day moving average. Previously, this short-term trendline contained all of the equity's daily closes from early March through April 17.

If the stock's momentum continues to dwindle, optimistic option players could grow frustrated. Peak call open interest of 23,416 contracts rests at the out-of-the-money May 10 strike, in territory TCK hasn't explored since last November. If the bulls begin to abandon hope, the shares could sag as these long positions are unwound.

Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 11:08 AM

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