3M misses Wall Street's mark -- sell the stock?


3M (NYSE: MMM) had a not-that-great first quarter. The declines were significant and ugly. First, net sales plunged over 20%. Second, net income on an adjusted basis likewise spiraled out of control, declining over 40% to $0.81 per share. And no, that didn't meet expectations. Wall Street was looking for $0.86 per share. Sorry, gang.

You've got the dollar and the global recession to blame. Currency translations affected sales, and declines in economic activity didn't help much, either. Many people look to 3M as a staunch dividend play. As such, cash flow is important. Unfortunately, the statement of cash flows this quarter was hard to read. Net cash from operations decreased 30%, and free cash flow lost 35% of its value when compared to the year-ago period. Thankfully, there was enough free cash to cover the dividend.

Although the quarter is one that management would like to forget, let's look at what the tape said. Shares of 3M rose over 5% on Friday, closing at an even $57 per share on above-average volume. We've been seeing this kind of thing a lot more often (at least, it seems that way): business reports a bad quarter, stock is up. Investors apparently are perceiving values in the marketplace. And I can see why one would buy 3M. It sports a good dividend yield, and when things improve, the cash should start flowing at a better rate once again.

In fact, back in February, Jim Woods named 3M as one of his ten stocks to fall in love with again. He mentioned the power of 3M's portfolio and how pervasive its products are in our society. Adhesive tape, medical supplies, filtration systems, 3M sells it all. And businesses and consumers alike buy the stuff. Woods is basically saying that long-term investors may want to consider this name as a buy-low-sell-high candidate.

3M's stock has been exhibiting strength. Of course, it's still a long way off from its 52-week high of $81.19. Like Dow colleagues General Electric (NYSE: GE), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), and DuPont (NYSE: DD) -- which Joseph Lazzaro says should be looked at, in addition to the subject of this piece -- 3M hopefully should rise to new heights once again when the current recession is safely put away between the covers of a history book (well, I hope it rises sooner than that, come to think of it). My feeling on the stock at this point is that it's a solid dollar-cost-averaging candidate. It might experience some volatility once the current bullish sentiment runs it course (I'm still not convinced that the rally has invincible legs), but it remains a potential core holding.

Disclosure: I own GE; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: February 12, 2012: 03:21 PM

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