If you follow the bank stocks, you noticed the latest earnings were very good. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) showed earnings that almost tripled. Citigroup (NYSE: C) lost 18 cents a share, but that was much better than the 34 cent loss analysts expected, and way better than the $2.44 it lost in the last quarter of 2008. Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) pre-announced it would have great earnings. Then delivered record results. But all of these stocks are well off their recent highs. Why is that?
It has to do with the quality of earnings. In other words, what was the source of this new-found land of profitability or in the case of Citi, lower loss? Investors like ongoing, predictable earnings. In the case of banks, that means loans such as mortgages or credit cards to worthy borrowers. But that isn't where banks got their profits this quarter. Instead, they came from investment banking and trading.
While money is money, some money is more liked than others. In this case, the money made from trading and deals isn't as well liked by investors because any time you can make large profits, there's also the risk you can lose in a big way as well, or those profits won't be available next quarter or next year because markets change. In the first quarter, the capital markets were in such disarray that big brokers with capital could buy securities at very favorable prices and sell them at even more favorable prices (to them).
Thornton O'Glove wrote a great book entitled "The Quality of Earnings." Highly recommended for serious investors. It describes how to look at earnings and determine which ones are of quality and which ones are less so. It's the ongoing profits, generated from a stream of predictable revenues that are most highly valued. A growing business that is selling more widgets at ever increasing profits is a great example. The large, one-time profits are least desirable because investors can't determine how much or how frequent those earnings will be in the future. Like the banks just reported.
What's happening to bank stocks for the moment is that their earnings are positive but negative. By that I mean they're positive because the ink is black instead of red. Negative because investors can't depend on these earnings going forward. Also, management did warn about further credit deterioration.
So investors quickly come to this "worst case" scenario: credit problems get larger, mortgage defaults rise as do credit card problems, loan loss reserves aren't enough to cover the write-offs. Then the trading desks and investment banking divisions also show losses, adding to an already troubled quarter. Worst-case indeed but still very probable. Is it any wonder that earnings were up and the stocks were down?
Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor, founder of Allrich Investment Management, LLC, as well as the author of the book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth And Sleep Well At Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
4-26-2009 @ 10:45AM
jhirsch1971 said...
No matter how many firewalls there are set up, as an investor on the sideline I cannot take part in this market because of exactly what you report. I cannot compete with or against the big banks/brokerages. I have no trust that this run up in stocks is not a way for the banks to lure me in to buy their trades at prices that are unjustifiable. I agree that these banks can make money borrowing at zero and trading but if they start to lose money that they are borrowing we are in big trouble. If they start creating inflation through this trading we are in big trouble because the fed reserve will have to raise interest rates and then where do the banks make money? This fed reserve better be careful with our money because they can really wreak havoc on us if we are blind to whats going on around us. Cooking the stock market right now is a way for the banks to win and the common investor to lose big again, but they have done it before and the comon investor keeps going back for more...not me this time!!!!!!!!! Repeal the repeal of Glass Stegel its our only hope!!!!!!!
4-26-2009 @ 11:36AM
ro said...
Bank Earning were very good, are you mad, between Citi and BOA they took in $ and assurances 400 billion from the govt and then reported 2 and 4 billion profit? Goldman orphaned the month of December to come up with their brand of voodoo! In short, these profits are less legit than ENRONs last balance sheet.
4-26-2009 @ 11:58AM
Jeff said...
Hmm, this article doesn't mention that banks are making piles of money borrowing money from the Fed discount window at almost nothing, and lending it. The spread has never been higher. That's such a basic fact - why isn't it here? Anyway, bank stocks are down? Not over the last 6 weeks - they're way higher. According to the PBS business show NBR, on Monday somebody floated a rumor on Wall St that the stress tests had determined that 16 of the top 19 banks were insolvent. By the end of the week banks had recovered most of what they lost on Monday. According to another story out today, short sales in banks stocks are diminishing too - a lot of traders seems to think the trend is up, not down.
4-26-2009 @ 3:15PM
geminixxx235 said...
What is this "stocks are down" nonsense. The main thing that should be considered is the market has recovered significantly from its lowest point when the former administration ended its culture of the illusion of economic prosperity. I would trust the integrity and reality of current economic indicators that drive the market compared to before.
4-26-2009 @ 3:20PM
danzillo4 said...
the web site "open secrets" has mzzzz Pelosi listed as the sixth richest congressperson...at a mere 154,000,000 yep that millions...she also was a Bank of America investor...and she collects millions yearly in rental property..I wonder if these rents are from government leases...
4-26-2009 @ 4:38PM
richard clark said...
how's nancy get so much money. as a liberal socialist why isn't she distributing some of her wealth for more equality among the masses. i thought ony the republicans were rich. didn't know there were rich democrats.
4-26-2009 @ 5:31PM
jack said...
DOW 5000.... COMING UP. i saw it coming and bailed out of the stock market almost 2 years ago.... i pay no taxes (excluding proprty & vehicle) and either sit on the beach, or the golf course in hawaii.... bite me obummer...aolsux
4-26-2009 @ 5:59PM
sgentilejr said...
Ted Allrich, the writer of this article is far more of a "Writer" of books and articles, than he is an investor who can see what lies ahead. "Real investors" whose only intent is to make money and avoid risks, are shying away from bank stocks because wise investors see that the mortgage default rate is still increasing. The credit card default rate is still increasing. The commercial loan default rate is still increasing. The auto loan default rate is still increasing. It is 100% IMPOSSIBLE for banks to have any type of prosperous future when more and more of the money they lend out is not being repaid.
4-26-2009 @ 6:05PM
sgentilejr said...
In addition to what I wrote in my the other posting, changes in the accounting rules have allowed the banks to carry assets on their books at "Mystery Values" Now valued at what they would or could be worth in good times, instead of valuing them at what they are actually worth in "real" dollars if they were sold now. That accounting change allowed the banks to legally cook their books. Wise investors are totally aware of what has gone on and thus all wise investors shy away from large regional banking stocks.
4-26-2009 @ 10:17PM
Bill Vaughn said...
Thanks to a REAL investor (Bill Vaughn) who taught me what I needed to know, I no longer worry much about all this crap. I made $$$ before this downturn, and I'm making $$$ now. I suspect I'll be making them well into the future, as well. Find someone who knows his stuff, and follow his advice. Of course, you COULD just sit around hoping the government will fix everything. HA!
4-27-2009 @ 1:48AM
toogeorge said...
We, the taxpayers, want our money back, all $700,000,000,000 'TARP' bailouts.
4-27-2009 @ 3:51AM
mikey said...
go to 'YOU TUBE' and type in 'fema coffins',,,swine flu update!