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Comfort Zone Investing: Earnings are up, but stock price is down. So what's really up?

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If you follow the bank stocks, you noticed the latest earnings were very good. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) showed earnings that almost tripled. Citigroup (NYSE: C) lost 18 cents a share, but that was much better than the 34 cent loss analysts expected, and way better than the $2.44 it lost in the last quarter of 2008. Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) pre-announced it would have great earnings. Then delivered record results. But all of these stocks are well off their recent highs. Why is that?

It has to do with the quality of earnings. In other words, what was the source of this new-found land of profitability or in the case of Citi, lower loss? Investors like ongoing, predictable earnings. In the case of banks, that means loans such as mortgages or credit cards to worthy borrowers. But that isn't where banks got their profits this quarter. Instead, they came from investment banking and trading.

While money is money, some money is more liked than others. In this case, the money made from trading and deals isn't as well liked by investors because any time you can make large profits, there's also the risk you can lose in a big way as well, or those profits won't be available next quarter or next year because markets change. In the first quarter, the capital markets were in such disarray that big brokers with capital could buy securities at very favorable prices and sell them at even more favorable prices (to them).

In other words, when there are only one or two buyers in the market for a security (think mortgage-backed securities in particular), the price goes way down. Once purchased, the dealers get their sales forces on the phones and sell the same security for a price that is still attractive to a buyer but well above where the dealer bought it. Also, the trading desks are buying and selling for their own accounts and for the quarter, they did very well at it. But investors can't rely on this kind of profitability as a steady source of profits. The markets giveth and markets taketh away, and when they taketh, they taketh big.

Thornton O'Glove wrote a great book entitled "The Quality of Earnings." Highly recommended for serious investors. It describes how to look at earnings and determine which ones are of quality and which ones are less so. It's the ongoing profits, generated from a stream of predictable revenues that are most highly valued. A growing business that is selling more widgets at ever increasing profits is a great example. The large, one-time profits are least desirable because investors can't determine how much or how frequent those earnings will be in the future. Like the banks just reported.

What's happening to bank stocks for the moment is that their earnings are positive but negative. By that I mean they're positive because the ink is black instead of red. Negative because investors can't depend on these earnings going forward. Also, management did warn about further credit deterioration.

So investors quickly come to this "worst case" scenario: credit problems get larger, mortgage defaults rise as do credit card problems, loan loss reserves aren't enough to cover the write-offs. Then the trading desks and investment banking divisions also show losses, adding to an already troubled quarter. Worst-case indeed but still very probable. Is it any wonder that earnings were up and the stocks were down?

Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor, founder of Allrich Investment Management, LLC, as well as the author of the book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth And Sleep Well At Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.


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IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-154.4810,309.92
NASDAQ-37.612,138.44
S&P 500-19.141,091.49

Last updated: November 28, 2009: 04:14 AM

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