The great debate: Have we reached bottom in the financial crisis, or is there more to come? It's a multi-million dollar question.
Reuters conducted a poll on April 21-27 to get feedback form analysts across Europe and the US. The sobering conclusion was that the recession could last a year or two more. Most said that the worst is yet to come. Their findings stated: "Financial and macroeconomic stability are still some way off and we don't yet have the foundation for a solid recovery."
Of course you always have two sides in a debate such as this. Finance chiefs from the Group of Seven richest nations were more optimistic saying that the economy may be past the worst phase of the recession.
Coming back to the question: are we in a bull or a bear market,? The poll indicates that conditions for recovery do not match our recent optimistic mood. 32 of the 60 analysts polled said that the recent rise in the stock market represented a bear market rally. 40 of 63 analysts said that governments must provide more stimulus packages for a solid recovery to take hold. But this may not be possible given the public backlash against such programs.
Which hat are you wearing, bull or bear?
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
4-27-2009 @ 6:27PM
Steve said...
This is a tough one. To me, this is starting to feel like a bull market on an emotional level. Logically, it would seem that we've come too far, too fast, and that not only will we correct, but we will head back into bear territory because, like you almost seem to imply, it can't be this easy.
One thing cannot be denied: trying to fight this tape is difficult. Look at some of the lousy earnings and the reactions to the underlying equities...some companies have popped on what I would consider to be lackluster results. Discounting a better future? Jury is still out.
But, I will try to give a final decision: we are simply in a bear market rally. Hope I'm wrong...
4-27-2009 @ 9:17PM
mauriciolopezsr said...
We are definitely not out of the woods yet; until the housing market stabilizes; there will be NO recovery!
The Geniouses in Wall Street way overvalued the real estate and it will take along time to stabilize this mess!
4-28-2009 @ 2:16AM
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