Readers of this space know that one of the preferred sectors is oil/oil services, and an extension of the above concerns companies whose fate is linked directly to the demand for oil. And with the aforementioned in mind, Frontline Ltd. (NYSE: FRO) is worth a review. Frontline is a shipping company that operates very large crude carriers (VLCC) and Suezmax tankers. The company transports primarily crude oil products, but also raw materials (coal, iron ore).
The majority of FRO's double-hull tonnage operates in the spot market, and when the leveraging bubble burst and the price of oil collapsed in 2008, so did institutional investor enthusiasm for Frontline's shares. The Street took shares down from a high around $70 to about $16. The First Call F2009 / F2010 EPS estimates for FRO are $2.18 / $2.06.
Was a hair-cut that large warranted? Hardly. And while tanker rates will not return to levels seen last summer, tanker rates have been firming and there's little to suggest the world will end its dependence on crude oil any time soon. Hence, put this in the category of a get-ahead-of-the-pack play, for investors who can tolerate some risk.
Stock Analysis: Frontline Ltd. is a moderate-risk stock. Consider buying a 25% position in FRO now; then buy another 25% in three months, if U.S. and global economic conditions don't worsen substantially. Under any circumstance, don't buy more than 50% of your FRO position in the first half of 2009. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to buy shares in this company: $7.
Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks, but does own shares in two Pimco Bond Funds: PHDAX and PYMAX.
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