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Burger King beats expectations, but will swine flu affect the fiscal year?

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Burger King (NYSE: BKC), a fast-food joint that competes with McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM), and Wendy's/Arby's Group (NYSE: WEN), issued its Q3 report on Wednesday. The top line didn't do much, rising only 1% in the face of difficulties with currency translations. Earnings came in at 34 cents per share. That was one penny better than Wall Street's expectations, according to Reuters.

It's always good to beat the earnings call. But Burger King didn't get much mileage out of that victory. The stock actually sold off 3% on the news, closing yesterday at a fresh 52-week low of $16.55. The big catalyst was the conservative fiscal-year guidance.

Management is worried about the economy, as well as something else that is worrying every single rational mind on the planet: the swine flu. Another thing to note is that global same-store sales were quite weak, rising only 1%, and that both Germany and Mexico were highlighted as problematic territories (Mexico is about to get a lot more problematic, I can guarantee you that).

Burger King did not put its best foot forward in this quarter. I know there were some timing issues mentioned in the release (e.g., when Easter was celebrated this year), but the chain has to realize that it has some work to do to regain its royal status.

Let's keep in mind that Burger King has a lot of cool brand equity that it can leverage. Sure, Ronald McDonald is an icon, but that clown has nothing on the creepy King character that targets the younger demos with a lot of humorous, edgy commercial campaigns.

And the company's menu is likewise funny at times. I mean, an Angry Whopper? I like stuff like that since it helps promote an image that can be very competitive when compared with the more mainstream appeal of a Mickey D's (although I do have to give the latter credit for the very funny ad featuring that singing fish, whose voice is unnerving in its own right). Keeping a longer-term perspective, I think Burger King will be able to bounce back from its current woes with some clever marketing campaigns.

Of course, the new 52-week low on the stock means that shorter-term players may want to avoid the company for the time being. Yes, you may catch a bounce, but I think it's possible the stock could go lower. Although it's difficult to say exactly what the swine flu will do to the enterprise, the headline news might make the shares volatile. It's something to keep in mind in case you think you may not want to hold Burger King for any significant length of time.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 09:18 AM

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