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Let's give Visa some credit for its Q2 performance

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Visa (NYSE: V), whose colleagues include American Express (NYSE: AXP), MasterCard (NYSE: MA), and Discover Financial Services (NYSE: DFS), reported a Q2 profit on Wednesday that was surprisingly strong. On an adjusted basis, earnings came in at 73 cents per share. Analysts were banking on only 64 cents per share, according to Reuters.

Quite frankly, I can see the disparity between Wall Street's thinking and the ultimate reality. I mean, the economy has been bad (to state the obvious), and people aren't spending as much. This means that they aren't using their credit cards like they used to. Ergo, you might expect Visa to post a lower number.

One interesting part of the story is the burgeoning importance of debit cards to the Visa business model. Growth in debit volumes is rivaling the growth of credit. This trend most likely will continue. Why? Consumers, from my anecdotal perspective, are becoming more comfortable with debit cards, and in fact prefer them to some degree over credit cards for the obvious reason -- you can't get into trouble using a piece of plastic attached to your checking account. It's like paying with cash.

Visa did well with cash flow in the second quarter. In the previous year's six-month period, Visa used almost $370 million for its operations. This time around, Visa generated well over $400 million from operations. I like that kind of change.

I really like Visa's long-term prospects. How can you not? Cashless transactions are sure to grow over time, and Visa will capture a lot of them via its debit products. And, no, the use of a traditional credit card isn't going away. Consumers will still want to borrow money to pay for products.

Visa's stock has been strong as of late. It closed on Wednesday at $63.51. The 52-week low is currently pegged at around $41. That low occurred in January of this year. So, yes, Visa has been a good trade. It's probably a bit frothy for short-term money, but more patient capital allocators may want to investigate Visa and consider it. As always, remember that Visa, like MasterCard, keeps a little portion of the money generated from every cashless transaction it processes. It doesn't make the actual loans. I find that risk/reward proposition attractive. For a look at one potential risk related to the swine flu, check out Elizabeth Harrow's recent article on the subject. Personally, I don't think the swine flu should scare you away from looking at Visa (at least at this juncture).

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 09:28 PM

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