If anything, Twitter has undergone a similar path as other break-out innovations, such as Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPod or Google's (NASDAQ: GOOG) search engine. In the early days, Twitter appealed to a deeply techie crowd, who wanted to keep in touch. This was the proverbial early-adopter phase. And, needless to say, the service passed muster and started to get buzz.

Next, Twitter was able to move beyond the early-adopter phase, allowing for a broad application. Essentially, people used the service to share links and commentary. From here, we got a new medium: microblogging. In fact, traditional bloggers used Twitter to improve engagement with users, which is not always ideal with commenting.

Again, the momentum got stronger and stronger. By November 2008, Twitter hit an inflection point. This is when the service became a critical tool in learning about the Mumbai siege. As a result, media outlets – like CNN – realized the power of Twitter and started to adopt the tool.

Then within the past few months, Twitter has yet again morphed into something else: a popularity contest. Of course, there was the "race to a million followers" between CNN and Ashton Kutcher. The upshot has been that Twitter is quickly gaining new users and even putting some pressure on mega players like Facebook and MySpace.

But, could this latest phase prove to be a problem? According to Jim Calhoun, who is the CEO and founder of PopularMedia:

"In a follower-obsessed Twittersphere, the dynamic changes dramatically. It's not about the conversation, it's about popularity. Meaningful reciprocity (meaningful back-and-forth dialog) in this environment is impossible. If you have 10,000 followers on Twitter you very well might feel important, but you can't engage in meaningful relationships.

"In the Popularity Phase, the focus has been on reach. The quality of the signal (which was very high in the Influential Blogger phase) is diminished. For most consumers new to the service, it's become full of aimless strangers who want to follow you in hopes you follow them back and they can market something directly to you. Quality of conversation is out the window, diminishing the utility and novelty of Twitter."

The fact remains that Twitter has been effective in evolving its service, making key decisions along the way. But social media can be a dangerous place (keep in mind that last week Yahoo! said it would close its Geocities site, which is a pioneer in social media). So, if history is any guide, even Twitter is bound to stumble at some point.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and the founder of BizEquity, a free online business valuation tool for small businesses. You can reach him on Twitter.