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Earnings preview: Will Disney's Q2 be a fun ride?

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Disney (NYSE: DIS), a media conglomerate that competes with CBS (NYSE: CBS), Viacom (NYSE: VIA), Sony (NYSE: SNE), and Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), will report fiscal second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, May 5. And it appears that investors should be prepared for a significant decline in the bottom line. Analysts believe that income may drop by over 30% to $0.40 per share. Yep, those magical days of profit growth are, for the time being, a thing of the past.

And it's not difficult to understand why. Disney is battling a recession. Consumers aren't spending money. They need all kinds of promotions and discounts to get them to open their wallets. So, theme parks and consumer products are understandably challenged. And then there's the advertising recession. That affects Disney's media properties. DVD sales? They're not as robust as they used to be. All in all, this is not a great time to be a shareholder of the Mouse.

Of course, that could be said about a lot of businesses. Every entity is suffering from the economic contraction. Disney's brand power, however, is supposed to give it an edge. I don't know; as a Disney shareholder myself, I'm not sure I've perceived a lot of edge lately from the company, especially when I look at a long-term chart. We'll see exactly how much edge the company currently retains when CEO Bob Iger talks about the various franchises that Disney is counting on to see it through the hard times. I myself wasn't too pleased with Hannah Montana: The Movie's second weekend.

I'll also be interested in comments made by Iger in regard to some new web-distribution strategies for the Mouse's content. For instance, Disney made a deal with Google's (NASDAQ: GOOG) YouTube. Disney also recently came to terms with Hulu, which is a video site backed by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal and News Corp. (NASDAQ: NWS). Iger is very interested in all kinds of distribution models for his company's vast library. So am I. More details on these deals would be nice, as well as the CEO's thoughts on future ventures. I'd also like to know if Iger favors partnerships over full ownership when it comes to exploring new platform opportunities.

I think one of the more salient moments from the press release and/or conference call will center on the subject of the H1N1 flu and its potential effect on the theme parks. So far, at least as of this writing, Disney's stock hasn't reflected any misgivings on the part of institutions over the company's theoretical financial exposure to the virus. The health crisis continues to evolve, with all kinds of news flow pointing in several directions at once. You may feel one day like it's not going to be so bad, and then the next day brings headlines that proclaim the identification of fresh cases. I know I've been feeling a lot of anxiety over the situation and am not particularly fond of crowds right now. I have to assume therefore that others may feel the same way I do. We'll just have to wait and see what the company's perspective is on the bug.

Disney has seen its shares increase recently, so I wouldn't want to do any trading before the earnings are released. I'd rather see how the stock settles after the report is out. I'd be too afraid that, even if the news is good, traders might sell the stock off anyway. I mean, when you think about it, doesn't it make sense that people will be looking for excuses to sell stocks that have seen some gains considering that we've had a significant quantity of bullish sentiment in the markets? I easily could be wrong about that, but I guess my gut is telling me to be cautious at this time. Playing the fearless investor will be a role for a later date.

Disclosure: I own Disney, GE; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 04:12 AM

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