Will the endless "beta" trade out of slow-moving, "safe" drugs and foods and into companies like Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) (Cramer's Take) and Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) (Cramer's Take) ever end?
I think it won't end here, that's for certain, unless your staples stock goes to a 5% yield and the economy's macro data show a further breakdown. If we get some retail sales that are awful and some employment numbers that show a further trashing, then we are going to see a momentary blip up in stocks like Pepsi (NYSE: PEP) (Cramer's Take) and Clorox (NYSE: CLX) (Cramer's Take), but perhaps no more than that.
But the earnings season has bought us some controls -- some stocks that are pure enough that they can be the base case for something happening, or not, with this group depending upon the economic winds.
These are companies in the staples section that either delivered respectable numbers and rallied briefly or are so beaten down that their stocks now command yields of 5% or more.
The first tests are the respectable number-beaters: Colgate (NYSE: CL) (Cramer's Take), Hershey (NYSE: HSY) (Cramer's Take), Abbott (NYSE: ABT) (Cramer's Take) and Kellogg (NYSE: K) (Cramer's Take).
In every case, these outdid their rivals. Colgate saw extraordinary growth in Latin America (personal cleanser growth could be augmented by swine flu although store closings are a killer) where Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) (Cramer's Take) doesn't excel. It still saw good share gains where it did compete with a wayward P&G.
Kellogg cleaned the clock of General Mills (NYSE: GIS) (Cramer's Take), which surprised me, especially because I am a longtime holder of General Mills for Action Alerts PLUS, in part because of excellent management over the years including current CEO Ken Powell. But their numbers were just plain awful. Kellogg's were blowout with some top-line growth and extraordinary bottom-line growth, especially considering the overseas mix, which is greater than that of General Mills. That's going to be a good test of things.
Then there is Abbott, which delivered numbers comparable to the fastest-growing tech companies but which has been a denizen of the new-lows list forever, as if its growth were declining. I regard this stock, with a totally broken chart that signals $35 at this pace, as the ultimate litmus.
Hershey reported a monster quarter and proceeded to get no more respect than it had before the monster quarter. It is perpetually viewed as overvalued because of endless takeover chatter, but its earnings held up because of good convenience store growth, good cost controls, and decent commodity compares. It was a plain out-and-out beat. It also has about the best chart in the book, as far as I am concerned.
Then there are the two high-yielders with decent product portfolio, one hurt by generics, the other hurt by product tradedowns: Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) (Cramer's Take) and Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB) (Cramer's Take).
Lilly's monster yield seems to be buttressed by giant cash flow, and its acquisitions have given it the most drugs in Phase III that it has ever had. So it has terrific yield and great growth products.
Kimberly-Clark, on the other hand, is going to show a dramatic decline in raw costs but is handicapped by a terrible strong-dollar issue. It still, because of that outsized yield, represents a good test of a return to a pre-beta-seeking era.
Clorox had a good quarter too, and it would have been a good exam of the thesis if it hadn't put such a damper on expectations, a surprising one but one that I am obeying as realistic because I think the management isn't sandbagging.
So let's watch these into the data. They will be the "tells' of whether the beta trade has run its course. It feels like it has if only because it seems to be going on forever, but one thing we have learned from this post-Lehman Brothers era is that everything's exaggerated now and more dangerous than we ever thought possible in the pre-Wild Wild West days.
Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Freeport-McMoRan, Caterpillar, Pepsi, Abbott and General Mills.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
5-04-2009 @ 12:44PM
Doug T said...
Is this guy for real? One can only hope he just might be running out of steam (rantings). For the good of all ordinary investment types, enough already!!
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