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Was 'Wolverine's' box office that great?

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It was a great weekend for comic book fans. First, Saturday was Free Comic Book Day. I hope you were able to celebrate (I did!). Second, Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) X-Men Origins: Wolverine, licensed to and distributed by News Corp. (NASDAQ: NWS), opened on Friday.

As expected, it completely annihilated the competition (I would have said clawed the competition, but I'm sure that pun has already been done to death by now) at the domestic box office over the weekend.

According to early estimates from Boxofficemojo, Wolverine is currently credited with a take of $87 million, a number that easily puts the film in the top slot ahead of such entries as Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Ghosts of Girlfriends Past, which grossed $15 million, and Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Obsessed, which made $12 million. Time Warner's 17 Again came in fourth, and DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) placed in the fifth spot with Monsters vs. Aliens, a cartoon distributed by Viacom (NYSE: VIA).

This was more than an exciting weekend for comic book geeks, though. Investor geeks who are currently playing Marvel were also rooting for the mutant to dominate. Question is, did Wolverine dominate enough?

Not in my opinion. I've read some coverage of the gross that described it as impressive. To me, $87 million is weak. Why do I say this? Well, to begin with, this is the first big movie of the summer. The box office has been strong as of late, so I would have thought that a huge number would have been more than doable. And by huge I mean something more than $100 million. Way more.

When I look at how the last X-Men film did, I just don't see how this performance can be considered satisfactory, especially from a shareholder point of view. The third X-Men project, released three years ago, grossed $102 million in its opening weekend. These days, a tentpole picture, especially one that's backed by significant franchise equity, and an expansive marketing campaign, should be able to capture over $100 million at the very least.

To be honest, if Wolverine did $102 million, I'd still be less than thrilled. Granted, I guess you could argue that maybe one should expect less from this one since it didn't focus on all the X-Men (at least, I don't think it did; haven't seen the film and don't know a lot about the plot, to be honest). I don't completely buy that argument, however.

Now . . . did the H1N1 virus plague the box office potential of the film? I can't really say. I haven't read anything at the time of this writing speculating on the virus exerting a negative effect on the financial take. However, I know that I have no interest whatsoever in heading to any film on opening weekend this summer. I don't care if it's a movie I've been anticipating for a long time and that I'm incredibly excited about. That's just my personal opinion.

In fact, based on some anecdotal checking, I don't think many Wolverine fans were frightened away by the illness. From what I understand, there were some bad reviews on the film, so perhaps that kept a lid on the opening weekend. I'll tell you this, though. All Marvel fans are surely aware that the company has adapted Stephen King's horror novel The Stand into the comic medium. And The Stand featured a superflu that wiped out just about all of mankind. Talk about a little irony. I certainly hope Randy Flagg wasn't walking among the screenings this past weekend.

As for Marvel's stock, it will be interesting to see what the reaction is on Monday (I'm writing this way ahead of the opening bell). Here's what I'm thinking: if you're a long-term shareholder and you love Marvel and you are comfortable knowing that the big catalyst of the Wolverine opening is now behind you and you are completely confident in the company's ability to make a lot of money off its future movie projects, then I see no reason why you couldn't continue holding the stock. This holds true even if the stock sells off.

But, if you recently purchased Marvel ahead of Wolverine, and the stock rises and you've got a profit, I'd sell. I'd also sell even if the stock sold off and you were still in the green.

I guess I'm saying that no matter what happens, short-term money that has any kind of profit attached to it should book the gain. The stock has been strong recently, and I'd have to assume that was based on the excitement associated with Wolverine. Now that the opening is in the cinematic history books, the risk of profit-takers taking the stock down is certainly quite real.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 24, 2009: 10:16 PM

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