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Earnings preview: Will Cisco deliver the goods in Q3?

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Tech investors will be looking forward to seeing how Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) made out in the third quarter. The networking entity, whose colleagues include Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), Juniper Networks (NASDAQ: JNPR), and Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU), will be reporting Q3 numbers on Wednesday, May 6, after the market closes. According to analysts, Cisco is not expected to grow the bottom line. The call is for 25 cents per share. If that figure is hit, then it will represent a drop of more than 30% on a year-over-year basis.

Here's the bright side, though. Cisco has beat the analysts at their game in recent times. Quite frankly, I think Cisco should be able to come ahead of estimates this week. I don't necessarily see why the trend will break. It's not like the stock has been telling the market that it will. Shares of Cisco have been doing well.

In fact, Cisco seems pretty confident in its operations. Tom Taulli wrote about a recent purchase that management made back near the beginning of April. Cisco bought Tidal Software for about $100 million, and chances are, this should be a good deal for the company.

Of course, not everything that happened during the quarter was positive. Eric Buscemi highlighted a downgrade issued on the company from a Goldman Sachs analyst. Cisco went from Goldman's Conviction Buy rating to the very less desirable Neutral.

For the most part, though, I think Cisco should be okay. Like I said, the stock has been performing, and a lot of investors have found the tech sector an interesting place to put some money. I'll be very interested to see what Cisco's margins are, and how the cash flow has been doing. Last time around, Cisco did fine on the cash-flow front. I'll also want to know more about the company's thoughts on future acquisitions, and how it would like to balance that strategy out with organic growth.

With the market acting in such a happy mood, it wouldn't surprise me if an earnings beat was met with some buying. You've got to keep in mind, however, that the possibility of a sell-on-the-news reaction is always there, especially with the recent run-up in the stock. That's why I can honestly say that I'm not in a rush to buy ahead of the report.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 05:48 PM

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