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Activision Blizzard beats in Q1 -- is it still a strong investment idea?

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Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI), a video-game publisher that competes with Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), THQ (NASDAQ: THQI), and Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO), reported some cool first-quarter numbers on Thursday after the bell. On an adjusted basis, the company earned 8 cents per share. According to analysts, Activision Blizzard was only supposed to do around 5 cents per share.

Not only was the bottom line solid, but revenues on an adjusted basis also came in ahead of expectations. And you can thank the usual suspects for powering up the quarter. You've got Call of Duty. You've got Guitar Hero. You've got World of Warcraft. These best-of-breed franchises are selling a lot of copies on Sony's (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3, Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360, and Nintendo's (OTC: NTDOY) Wii.

It looks like Activision Blizzard's management knows a good investment when it sees it. The company has repurchased over $400 million of its own shares at an average price of $9.76. Considering that Activision Blizzard's stock closed on Thursday at $11, I'd say the buyback represented good use of shareholder capital.

The earnings release also mentioned a raise in terms of forward guidance. The company is obviously very confident about its future potential. So am I. There's no question that Activision Blizzard is one of the stronger players in the video-game business. And I think Christmas 2009 is going to be very kind to the publisher's upcoming slate. And if we get some reductions in hardware prices, then things will be even better.

I own shares of Activision Blizzard and don't have definitive thoughts about selling them all, at least at the moment. Truth be told, though, I had been throwing around the idea of locking in perhaps some of the gains I have. And looking at the after-market action in the stock as of this writing, I see that shares of the company only reached $11.27, which was good for roughly a 2.5% gain.

I have to say, I thought that the market might be more inclined to bestow a bigger bid for Activision Blizzard. Does this mean the stock is played out? Not necessarily. But it might mean that shares could tumble in the short term if the overall recent bullish sentiment on Wall Street begins to wane.

I'll have to see how Activision Blizzard performs during Friday's trading session. It would be tough to sell this company since it really is doing well, and since its pipeline seems so resilient. What am I going to do, sell and go into THQ? I don't think so. If you want to play the video-game industry, this is definitely one idea you absolutely must take seriously.

Disclosure: I own Activision Blizzard; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 23, 2009: 02:38 AM

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