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CBS sees sales decline and a loss in Q1

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CBS (NYSE: CBS) programmed its Q1 earnings report Thursday after the bell. If the report had been a pilot, it would have been canceled immediately.

Revenues slipped over 13% to around $3.2 billion. CBS said it lost 8 cents per share. Talk about a failure of a quarter. Last year at this time, CBS made 36 cents per share. True, the comparison was a difficult one, since a change in distribution strategy for the international placement of the CSI asset enhanced the previous year's results.

But let's not get hung up on difficult comparisons. CBS simply had a bad three months. A very bad three months indeed. Oh, and I should note that analysts thought CBS might earn 7 cents per share. That seems almost comical at this juncture.

And let's talk about cash flow. CBS watches its cash flow carefully. The whole business model used to be based on cash flow since the point of owning CBS was for the dividend. Remember those good old days? CBS was a stock that income investors could go to if they desired exposure to the glamor and glitz of Hollywood content.

Then came the dividend cut. Presumably, a lot of income investors fled the stock. Well, during the quarter, CBS used over $20 million for operations. However, the company calculates that its free cash flow came to over $200 million. This was based on adding back some monies devoted to a decrease in the company's accounts receivable securitization program. No matter what, though, free cash flow saw a precipitous decline over last year's number. And that isn't encouraging.

We know what's going on. Advertising isn't a great business right now. Disney's (NYSE: DIS) ABC, News Corp.'s (NASDAQ: NWS) Fox, and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC will gladly confirm that observation. CBS will have to work harder to cut costs. And even though CBS is doing relatively well in the ratings, I'll still say that management should work harder on that count as well. Hey, when you report a miserable loss, you've got to put in the overtime to get things fixed.

Well, things have been interesting for CBS the stock. You know, I contemplated buying some shares when they went below the $4 mark recently. However, I've been conservative with my trading as of late, so I ended up passing on the opportunity. I certainly hope some of you out there were braver than I was. You would have made money on the move back up to $8.

My feeling is that CBS may trend downward after these not-so-great numbers. But perhaps a lot of the bad news has been priced in. I couldn't really approve of CBS as a true buy based on fundamentals. But if you wanted to speculate that it nevertheless represents a value play, I wouldn't be dead set against such a move, so long as only risk capital was used. In the end, the decision is yours. I'll wait to see how the price action on the charts further develops.

Disclosure: I own Disney, GE; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 06:06 AM

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