Further, the U.S. recession will keep F2009 U.S. vehicle sales well below the normal, annual fleet replacement level (which typically is about 10.5 million vehicles).

What drives (pun intended) the Buy rating, then? Any hint of a recovery will lead to an uptick in tire sales as Americans head to showrooms to buy both new and used cars. Tire replacement sales for those keeping their existing car also should rise at the first sign of an improving economy, as they typically do, as selected drivers finally make that delayed purchase to replace old tires. The First Call F2009/F2010 EPS estimates for GT are a loss of 42 cents/a profit of $1.21.

In addition, tire margins should be aided by falling raw material prices. That fact, combined with Goodyear's demonstrated business model and a P/E of 5 tips the scale in favor of a Buy. Goodyear's shares are now about as cheap as an empty shoe box. And as the legendary founder and owner of the New York Giants, the late Tim Mara, once said: "Even an empty shoe box is worth $500."

Stock Analysis: Goodyear is a moderate-risk stock. Consider buying a 25% position in GT now; then buy another 25% in three months, if U.S. and global economic and global conditions don't worsen substantially. Under any circumstance, don't buy more than 50% of your GT position in the first half of 2009. Sell/Stop Loss if you were to buy shares in this company: $6.

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Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks, but does own shares in two Pimco Bond Funds: PHDAX and PYMAX.