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Chasing Value: 2009 picks -- 1st review

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The 2009 clock is ticking loudly. Last December I posted Chasing Value: 9 picks for 2009 -- APC, GE, ISRG, WFC and more. This is the first follow-up, four months later, through April 30 2009.

The year started off with continued turbulence. We have a new president, Barack Obama, who will boldly lead us where no man has gone before -- trillions further in debt, most likely.

Not that this is his doing, but it is his chosen calling, and right now he is calling out to the Congress to move forward on various contentious budget proposals and continued federal stimulus packages.

The stock market swooned through the first ten weeks of the year to March 9, when I posted Nostradamus was a punk! Have we reached bottom? with uncanny timing. I called the bottom not on any technical or historical analysis but simply because I had heard too many people signaling the end of the world and I decided that was the ultimate in capitulation.

The big winner through four months was American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), soaring over everything else. The big loser was Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC), though this has turned around completely since the end of April.

The market has rebounded significantly from the March lows and, in some respects, this update is already out of date because the market has continued to rise through early May -- it is hard to keep up.

Among the nine stocks, seven originally paid a dividend. The average yield for the nine stocks was 4.82% when the year started. However, during the first quarter AAUK stopped paying a dividend and GE and WFC cut their dividends substantially, reducing the average payout to 3.31%. This is still a nice yield but not nearly what I hoped for.

Since my past recommendations included both stocks that I owned and did not own, this year is different. I own all of them. I have been a buyer throughout the turbulence and have benefited by capitalizing on others' fears. I have reviewed nine stocks from year end and also from my cost, which is not a static point, and there is a big difference in results.

Review based on December 30 closing price: The average ended with a fractional loss of 0.34%, but adding the dividend of 1.1% (3.31 x .33) totaled 0.76% for a paltry gain, beating the DJIA and S&P but losing out to the NASDAQ. There were only three winners among the nine, but one big winner made the difference.

  1. American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO) improved dramatically from $9.13 to $14.82 for a 62.32% gain.
  2. Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) went from $37.95 to $43.06 for a 13.47% gain.
  3. Anglo American ADR (NASDAQ: AAUK) began at $11.37 and dropped to $10.77 for a 5.28% loss.
  4. Annaly Capital Management (NYSE: NLY) started at $15.29 going to $14.97 for an 8% loss.
  5. Diageo plc (NYSE: DEO) was $55.65 but sank to $47.85 for a 14.02% loss.
  6. EZCorp Inc. (NASDAQ: EZPW) went from $14.81 to $12.39 for a 16.34% loss.
  7. General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) initated at $15.82 compressed to $12.65 for a 20.04% loss.
  8. Intuitive Surgical Inc (NASDAQ: ISRG) was $124.34 but jumped to $143.73 for a 15.59% gain.
  9. Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) began at $28.80 but sank to $20.01 for a 30.52% loss.

Review based on my cost to date: The average return was a 10.61% gain, plus the dividend of 1.1% (3.31% x .33), totaling 11.71% and beating the market by a large margin. Current yields are in parentheses. Acquiring additional shares reduced my actual average. Five out of the nine ended April in positive territory.

  1. American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO) from $8.99 (4.39%) up to $14.82 for a 65.8% gain.
  2. Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) from $34.00 (0.97%) up to $43.06 for a 26.65% gain.
  3. Anglo American ADR (NASDAQ: AAUK) from a lower $9.80 (cut to 0%) up to $10.77 for a 9.9% gain. This is the only stock of the nine I chose to sell on the upside and later buy back two days later.
  4. Annaly Capital Management (NYSE: NLY) doubled down lowering average to $14.40 (15.01%) and dropping slightly to $14.07 for a 2.29% loss.
  5. Diageo plc (NYSE: DEO) added shares reducing the average to $49.48 (4.67%), which dropped to $47.85 for a 3.3% loss.
  6. EZCorp Inc. (NASDAQ: EZPW) adding shares reduced the average to $13.18 (0%), which closed down to $12.39 for a 6.02% loss.
  7. General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) held at $16.00 (reduced to 3.03%) that dropped to $12.65 for a 21.93% loss.
  8. Intuitive Surgical Inc (NASDAQ: ISRG) added shares reducing the average to $126.98 (0%), which jumped to $143.73 for a 13.19% gain.
  9. Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) added shares several times reducing the average significantly to $17.94 (cut to 1.76%), which improved to $20.07 for a 11.55% gain.
Review of the three major indices: Two were down and one was up. The average return was a 0.99% gain, plus the dividend of 0.79% (2.4% x .33) totaling a 1.78% return if you invested in all three equally.

The 2009 picks are holding up so far, but to date, the notion that you could buy in December and forget about them could be questioned. Since the end of April the stock market has continued its rally and as of this post only GE remains down.

While writing this I could not help but think about James Cramer's constant rant about "doing your homework." No matter what someone suggests, things change rapidly and you cannot depend on following blindly into the realm with so many variables and hope to come out with similar results to another investor. I made changes during the first four months of the year, and while I reported many of these trades, I did not have the time or the obligation to report every detail.

My actual portfolio results beyond these picks were juiced dramatically by naked puts at moments of extreme fear. As an example, I "sold to open" a position in Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) at a May strike price of $7.50 expiring next Friday May 15. I was paid $1.45 per share and on Friday May 8 the premium had dropped down to 2 cents and it will go to zero and expire. I posted several stories on this subject see: Chasing Value: Will we be eating out of trash cans?

American Eagle Outfitters: Retail has been sputtering along but AEO has a very strong balance sheet with a barrels of cash and no debt.

Anadarko Petroleum: APC has moved up as oil has moved up. Having 70% of its reserves in North America remains a very positive attribute.

Anglo American: Eliminating it's dividend, selling off assets, closing mining operations, cutting its workforce and right-sizing the company are all having a positive impact.

Annaly Capital Management: The stock has not performed as well as I had hoped so far for reasons that escape me. In these uncertain times I would think the 15% yield by itself would be enough to get some love. After all, that dividend puts NLY ahead of all the major indices.

Diageo: The company has been swinging up and down looking for direction. The company is based in Great Britain and is subject to currency fluctuations more than most.

EZCorp: The company continues to grow and prosper but the stock is languishing for now. There remains a question mark as to how and when the current administration in Washington will view its business model and may move to cap interest rates they can charge on short-term loans and cash advances.

General Electric: Even after cutting its dividend to improve its cash position, GE still lost its coveted AAA credit rating. The stock has been down most of the time and only recently has been gaining ground. The biggest concern among investors has been its financial division and real estate holdings. Its biggest propsects seem to be in all the infrastructure spending being unleashed.

Intuitive Surgical: ISRG continues to shine. It had dropped significantly but lately has rocketed upward 55%. Time to take a breath.

Wells Fargo: WFC has been down with the financial sector but as of late has rebounded mightily. The bank is benefiting from reduced competition, lower interest rates and higher margins and a lot of refinancing that has been spurred as a result.

I will review the picks a few more times during the year and at year's end. The market has been in rally mode for nine weeks and counting. Some are waiting for the market to fall back. It might, but I would be greatly surprised if we test the March lows: Bear rally or not, investors seem shock-resistant

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of all nine stocks as indicated.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+17.4610,023.42
NASDAQ+7.122,112.44
S&P 500+2.671,069.30

Last updated: November 08, 2009: 05:14 PM

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