Consider Tyson, but only with a tight stop

Posted May 11th 2009 9:30AM by Joseph Lazzaro
Filed under: Tyson Foods'A' (TSN), Stocks to Buy

Beef, chicken, and pork producer Tyson Foods (NYSE: TSN) has accelerated nicely out of 'the danger zone' – the $10 price level – only to be confronted with another potential hurdle -- a change in consumer food preferences, due the H1N1 flu.

And one must underscore "potential" because while Tyson's food is safe, pork sales will still likely fall, due to customers switching out of pork.

Still, Tyson has solid "alternate positives," namely: chicken. And when you combine the "frugal consumer" dimension to chicken with the chance for a decent-to-good summer outdoor barbeque/grilling season, the scale is tipped in favor of Buy rating for TSN -- but do note the tight Sell/Stop Loss.

The First Call F2009 / F2010 EPS estimates for TSN are a loss of -4 cents and a profit of 82 cents.

Stock Analysis: Tyson is a moderate-risk stock. Consider buying a 25% position in TSN now; then buy another 25% in three months. Under any circumstance, don't buy more than 50% of your TSN position in the first half of 2009. Sell/Stop Loss if you were to buy shares in this company: $8.30.

Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks, but does own shares in two Pimco Bond Funds: PHDAX and PYMAX.

Tags: featured, H1N1 flu, H1n1Flu, TSN