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Experts say General Motors bankruptcy is inevitable

While Chrysler works its way through the bankruptcy process, there is a growing consensus that General Motors (NYSE: GM) will have to join it there -- sooner rather than later. The sheer size, complexity and number of parties involved in the company's restructuring effort are likely to make it impossible to execute a turnaround outside of the courts.

GM has to negotiate massive concessions from unions, convince bondholders to swap their claims for equity in a company that doesn't earn money, sell brands, close plants and shut down many of its dealers. It's an overwhelming task and the negotiations are, several experts tell the Associated Press, just too complex to be feasible without the protection of bankruptcy.

According to the AP, "Although company executives said last week they would still prefer to restructure out of court, experts say all GM is doing now is lining up majorities of stakeholders to make its court-supervised reorganization move more quickly."

If GM opts for bankruptcy instead of an out-of-court restructuring effort, the company's existing stock will most likely be completely worthless -- yet another reason that bankruptcy is the best option for GM. Depriving shareholders of financial rewards they're not entitled to leaves more value to be distributed to creditors.

If GM is going to file for bankruptcy though, it should just go ahead and do it. Otherwise, it's just wasting time and money engaging in a deluded fantasy that things really aren't that dire.
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Last updated: November 25, 2009: 08:59 AM

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