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Hong Kong ETF (EWH): 'Set to soar'

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This post is part of a 12-article feature on the best bets for investing in China. To see all the other recommendations in this special report, click here.

"While the U.S. markets are rising, Asian stock markets are on fire," says global specialist Nicholas Vardy.

In his The Global Bull Market Alert, he suggests, "Our latest bet is s China play; we are recommending the iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index (NYSE: EWH). Here, he explains why he believes that Hong Kong's stock market is "set to soar over the coming months."

"First, although it is thousands of miles away, the Hong Kong stock market is directly subject to the whims of U.S. interest rate policy.

"As you know, the Fed has cut interest rates to essentially zero in the U.S. What you may not know is that Hong Kong's monetary policy is closely tied to the U.S. dollar.

"For the last 25 years, the Hong Kong dollar has been worth about $7.80, a level ensured through an interest rate policy implemented by a currency board.

"As a result, Hong Kong's stock market is subject to wild "booms and busts" for reasons that have nothing to do with its own economic prospects.

"Every time the Fed cuts real interest rates to zero -- as it did in 1992-1993, and again in 2003-2005, the Hong Kong stock market has at least doubled.

"Second, let's not forget Hong Kong's strong -- and improving -- fundamentals. Hong Kong has been for decades one of the 'freest' markets in the world.

"It is also the safest and most liquid direct play on the Chinese stimulus package and global economic recovery. Yet when investors were throwing the baby out with the bathwater, Hong Kong stocks hit single-digit price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios.

"Every time the market has collapsed to such low levels in the past, Hong Kong stocks have gone on to double and even triple within a few years time.

"Finally, while pundits debate whether the U.S. stock markets are in a genuine uptrend, by many measures, emerging markets are already there. After falling over 60% from their peak last May, global emerging market indices bottomed in December.

"Since late 2008, they have staged a series of higher highs and higher lows. Just last week, both emerging markets and the Hong Kong stock market crossed the all important 200-day moving average, confirming a long-term uptrend."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a free daily overview of the favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 06:09 AM

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