When we took a look at oil prices last Friday oil was hitting a new 6 month high, and we noted that we could be seeing $60 oil by the end of this week. We did indeed see oil hitting $60 this week, but today prices took a hit, dropping back down under $57 a barrel.
The main reason prices retreated today was in reaction to disappointing news on retail sales, unemployment, and more bad news from the housing market. Oil has dropped $2.10 a barrel today to $56.52, and some analysts think that it still has a way to go before stabilizing.
Christoffer Moltke-Leth, who is the head of sales trading at Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore is one of these analysts, and he believes that oil will probably head down closer to $50 a barrel following its recent price surge.
There have been hopes that the current recession is close to ending, which would help boost oil demand, but with all the conflicting news we have been given lately, it is tough to say just how long things are going to continue on the current path. The International Energy Agency and OPEC both went on record this week to cut their demand forecasts while at the same time increasing their supply estimates.
This could be good news for drivers as we rapidly approach the summer driving months. Gasoline is still well below the prices we were seeing last summer, but in case you haven't noticed recently, prices have been moving higher.
This week alone, we have seen the national average for a gallon of gas jump by 12 cents to $2.26 a gallon. A drop in oil prices would definitely help cool off gasoline prices.
Oil has definitely been enjoying some strong gains in May, but not everyone is so sure that the price jump can be justified. A large number of analysts have stated that oil lacks the fundamentals to justify the recent bump in prices. There is a lot of concern over possible inflation these days, and the idea is that hedge funds have been jumping into oil more as a hedge against inflation than anything else. With this week's supply and demand revisions, the market is starting to pay more attention to these concerns.
There is little doubt that both oil and gasoline prices are going to move higher through the summer. As more and more people hit the roads for their summer vacations demand will increase, and prices will follow suit, the only question is just how high will gasoline get this summer. I doubt we are going to be seeing $4 gasoline again this year, but I would not bet against $3 gasoline before the summer is over.
What are your predictions? Will gasoline prices head up towards $3 a gallon, or should we expect prices to remain closer to $2 a gallon?











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
5-16-2009 @ 3:42PM
DON said...
THEY GOT US COMING & GOING
WE WILL PAY TILL THEY OWN US IF THEY DON'T ALREADY