That's awful to be certain, and I would not be willing to bet that Deere will beat earnings this time around. Deere said that 2009 will be a period of uncertainty. Completely understandable given the circumstances.

One thing that investors will be keeping an eye on is the cash flow. The green stuff was nowhere to be found in Q1. According to data at Deere's corporate web site, which you can get here (pdf file), the company used nearly double the amount of cash for operations as it used in the first quarter of 2008. I'd really like to see a much better cash-flow statement. I'm not so sure we'll get one, though.

Deere's stock trended down after the Q1 report. After bottoming in March, the stock has risen. Indeed, many stocks are strong even though the fundamental data on a lot of the companies behind them don't appear to be so resilient. As of this writing, Deere is up something like 16% on the year-to-date frame. Deere's colleague, Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), while down for the year, is firmly 30% in the green the last few months, and that company didn't exactly report the best quarter ever in April.

Would I do an earnings trade on Deere? No. I know that isn't the exciting answer, but it may end up being the prudent one. I wouldn't be surprised if Deere misses (although, considering the rise in the stock price, perhaps the market is betting on analyst projections and actual performance being closer this week). And taking into account that a lot of bears out there are probably looking for excuses to sell, I wouldn't want to get caught owning Deere on a down day.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.