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Hewlett-Packard: Good for the long term?

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Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) had a weak Q2. According to the earnings release that was issued on Tuesday after the close of trading, revenues declined 3% on an adjusted basis.

If you strip out currency effects, then you get a gain of 3% on the top line. Either way, I'm not excited. And here's something else that wasn't so thrilling. Earnings per share on an adjusted basis came in at 86 cents. Last year at this time, Hewlett-Packard generated 87 cents per share. Not a great comparison.

In terms of market expectations, Hewlett-Packard was able to meet Wall Street's call. That makes the quarter not a total disaster. Another thing that makes the numbers look a little better is the statement of cash flows. The company did okay with cash from operations.

If you look through the release, you'll note that many areas of the business just didn't perform. And, according to Reuters, guidance isn't anything to write home about. Plus, there will be more workforce reductions.

What does this all add up to? It's a simple equation: the recession equals tough times for Hewlett-Packard. Tech certainly isn't immune to the downturn. Companies such as Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM) have had their challenges. And in the after-hours session yesterday, Hewlett-Packard's stock lost 5% of its value.

Okay, Hewlett-Packard has a tough road ahead of it. In that way, it's no different than any other business. The fundamentals are not in the best of states. The stock, however, has been fairly strong the last few months. Here's what I'm thinking: Short-term, the stock could find itself under pressure. Long-term thinkers, however, might want to consider the shares on weakness (after a round or two of serious due diligence, of course).

I like Hewlett-Packard's future prospects and I think its momentum could continue. Granted, PC sales aren't good, but as Brian White points out, Hewlett-Packard does well with netbooks. The HP brand is a strong one, and I believe it will rebound nicely once the recession starts to soften.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 04:00 AM

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