A market driven by the price of oil -- good when it goes up and bad when it goes down -- is way too binary to profit from. Yet that's where we find ourselves and it is so counterintuitive as to be unnerving.
I think the fact that oil is struggling and failing to take out $60 is a good sign. The purchasing power of Americans is dependent upon jobs, expenses, psyche, interest rates and the stock market. We know that the stock market isn't our friend or our enemy, interest rates are still our friend, jobs are awful, and psyche seems like a push because the love for President Obama is still in the air.
But the expenses have been pretty good given the lower cost of housing and the lower cost of gasoline. The latter -- gasoline -- is directly correlated with retail and restaurants as we know from the previous decline in fuel.
So how in heck can this market just go straight down whenever the oil futures go down?
The simple setup should be short the Oil Service HOLDRs (NYSE: OIH) (Cramer's Take) exchange-traded fund, short the Oil Services Index and go long everything else. We should be able to short Transocean (NYSE: RIG) (Cramer's Take) and Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) (Cramer's Take), and Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) (Cramer's Take), and Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) (Cramer's Take) and do just fine.
But it doesn't work out like that.
Frankly, until it does, I think I have to doubt this market's ability to get through this range. It's just too difficult to have gasoline go much higher and not expect to lose something that's been of great support to the retailers and the restaurants. It made sense when oil was in the $30s going to the $40s as that was the depression going to a recession. It made sense when oil was in the $40s going to the $50s. It even made some sense when oil was in the $50s going to the $60s.
But the S&P 500 futures should be rejoicing with the push back from $60, not going down. Until the market is a tad more rational on higher energy costs, you can't be as thrilled as you might otherwise be at this moment.
Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
5-26-2009 @ 10:47AM
Brandon said...
Oil isn't leading the market up. But Oil will lead the market down. You can't have equities this high and expect Oil not to follow suit. We can't handle $60 Oil thus we can't handle Equities being this high. Don't you care about stability and balance?
5-26-2009 @ 11:06AM
Beltway Greg said...
At $35 oil was the buy of a lifetime. It will eventually top at $85-$95 this summer. In regard to constant dollars it is still cheap plus we have the upcoming hurricane season. Add in OPEC cuts and chicanery, a random hurricane or two and $100 is doable. This weekend everybody took to the roads. Happy Motoring.
5-26-2009 @ 12:27PM
Iridium said...
I hope that was a joke Beltway Greg. If not you can join the ranks of the most vile human beings to ever exist.
Oil was only the buy of a lifetime at $35 if you do not care about anything other than profit for yourself. Only if you beleive that your personal fortune is of greater consequence that the well being of the human race. Only if you live for pure selfish greed. To be the worst our race has to offer.
To see oil as the buy of a lifetime at $35 only shows you to be a domestic terrorist. Anyone that helped to drive oil to $60 has done more damage than anyone in Gitmo. Speculative oil traders should be executed for treason. There is no nicer way to say it.
If I saw you on the street and you said that you want oil to go to $100 so you could profit from it, I would beat you within an inch of your life. Then I would let the mob of people that would gather finish the job. If someone singled out an oil market speculator on the street and said, "there is one of the guys that made you pay $4 a gallon for gas last year and wants to do it to you again". I would have a hard time believeing you would make it out alive.
Only people that have so much money that they never have to worry about anything would cheer oil going up based on nothing but market manipulation.
Based on every fundamental oil should be at $18 a barrel. You couldn't justify $35 back in January and there is no way oil can ever be justified at $60 even with production cuts and a hurricane. If oil does go above $100 again with gas to $4 there will be riots in the streets. Obama can kiss his approval rating goodbye as well. One of the real reasons why the Republicans lost so bad was the price of gas. The democrats painted the republicans as the party of big oil ans people rebelled against that. With the dems in control how are they going to explain it this time.
5-26-2009 @ 6:28PM
red79vett said...
I hope YOUR comments were a joke, Iridium. Why would a rational person think that oil should be priced differently than any other commodity ( and I use the word commodity in it broadest sense i.e. labor is a commodity) While I agree that speculation did cause the spike up to $140 last summer, to broadly paint the entire industry (and commodity) as evil, indicates to me, that you have been spending way too much time listening to politicians, ACORN and various environmental groups who love a whipping boy to excuse why the world doesn't work the way they think it should.
Oil will go back to $140 and higher; but this time it will be based on fundamentals of supply and demand. As someone who has spent 25 years in the industry, I know it is not easy finding, drilling, developing and delivering oil profitably. I also know that the supply of oil (not gas) is falling and that soon, demand will surpass that supply. And the fact that you don't like it, or think it isn't fair will be too bad.
The industry knew(and didn't want) oil shoudn't have been priced at $140 last summer; it also knew it shouldn't have been priced at $35 a few months ago. It needs to be in the $80 to $95/bbl to support new exploration and development or $140 will be cheap in a few years. The U.S also needs to shake off the fear mongering of the environmentalists and open up more offshore and domestic sites for development.
I want $100/bbl oil if that is what it takes to increase supply and if I make a good profit, so what. If you don't like it; stay home, turn out the lights and freeze or sweat. You don't have to buy it. It is a life style choice. Don't expect me or anyone else to feel bad that you don't want to make a choice between your entertainment or oil purchase.
And don't make me laugh about beating me up on the street.
5-26-2009 @ 8:17PM
beachpaul said...
The American auto industry stayed in bed with the oil industry and look what has happened to them. It's time to pursue other options. That being said, as you can tell from above, oil will not go gently into the good night. America is, has always been, about special interests colliding. The telephone demolished the telegraph industry. Satellites are killing telephone land lines. Telephone companies are responding by going into the cable business. They own the poles and their employees need to climb them, and make a paycheck, with the guys from the electric company who need coal so they can get paid climbing poles also. Speculators speculate. You can buy oil red, but you shouldn't be allowed to buy it unless you are going to take delivery. If you are just going to be a middle man, adding to the price, adding nothing of real value, then our government regulators should cut you out of the pie.