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Should you be trading Disney?

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Every few months, it seems, we get an article or two that says Disney (NYSE: DIS) might be a buy. TheStreet.com issued an upgrade on the stock based on several metrics. SmartMoney believes Disney might be a great company for the summertime.

When it comes to Disney, every investor has to be careful. Take every analytical article with a grain of salt. Why? Because even though the fundamentals might be good on the company from a valuation standpoint, Disney's stock has disappointed investors many times in the past. As a long-term shareholder, I know what I'm talking about. And many other pundits have made the same observation: Disney always seems to be cheap to someone at any given time.

That said, I have been thinking myself about trading the current sentiment out there via Disney. I figure I could establish a trading position to go along with my long-term shares and see if there's any fuel left to the rally. Disney's stock has been strong, I have to admit.

That's the problem, though, isn't it? Buying Disney now would be a bet that the rally we've seen in many shares will continue. Look at how some of the media stocks have acted. News Corp. (NASDAQ: NWS), CBS (NYSE: CBS), Viacom (NYSE: VIA), they've all been good trades.

I've been reticent about putting on too many trades at the moment. Why? I feel like the market is set to correct pretty severely. You know the cliche. We've-come-too-far-too-fast isn't just a collection of words. It's an important concept to keep in mind.

I think a lot of stocks right now might simply be experiencing rallies based on the idea that we've hit the bottom and that things are definitely on their way to getting better. Fundamentals aren't necessarily being considered. It's just a feeling out there. Now, yes, you might make an argument that Disney is cheap. Yet, are we absolutely sure that the consumer is all set to start spending this summer? Many companies remain cautious on that count. And so do I.

Still, I'd like to get some trades going. Since Disney isn't a wildly speculative issue, I might buy some and then maybe try to increase my return by selling some covered calls on the position assuming the premium is there. I did that not long ago with Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and made a nice profit.

However, I'd buy Disney on one condition: it's got to pull back! I'd really love to see it closer to $20 per share as opposed to the $23.70 it closed at last Friday before the holiday.

Will I get such a drop? Who knows. That's another lesson for traders: be patient. Always. Otherwise, I guarantee you losses.

Disclosure: I own Disney; positions can change without notice.

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DJIA+30.6910,464.40
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S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 25, 2009: 11:04 PM

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