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Earnings preview: Will Heinz surprise the market?

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Heinz (NYSE: HNZ) is set to report Q4 data before the opening bell on Thursday, May 28. How will the company do? And by that I mean, will it beat the earnings expectation?

In general, that's what the market looks for. Sometimes the market cares more about beating the analyst game than it does about profit growth. Might sound strange, but that's what you see from time to time. Of course, even when a company beats, it may not make much of a difference when it comes to price action (I'll get to that in the last paragraph).

I think Heinz will indeed beat on the bottom line. I'm going by recent history here. According to Earnings.com, Heinz is expected to report 54 cents per share tomorrow. The company went beyond the call in the first three quarters of its fiscal year. Why miss on the last quarter of the year? I think the trend is in on this one.

But there will most likely be a drop in profit. Heinz made 61 cents per share in last year's fourth quarter. That's not something investors want to see, but it is understandable, given the current economic climate and the effect of currency changes.

In the third quarter, Heinz did very well in terms of cost cuts and restructuring its portfolio by reducing SKUs. I would imagine that Heinz will continue to benefit from these moves. I also think we'll see Heinz's core brands doing reasonably well. It will be interesting to see how pricing strategies are currently affecting organic volumes.

Heinz, which is a major supermarket brand, does see a lot of competition from private-label brands. Companies like Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB), and Kellogg (NYSE: K) all have to put up with this issue, and I've brought it up many times before. I think it's something that investors in this arena must keep in mind during an economic downturn.

Like I say, though, Heinz should beat this week. But I personally would not make an earnings trade of the stock. Heinz rose when it reported back in February, but back in November, the stock didn't react much. And the shares are currently closer to a 52-week low than a 52-week high. I think waiting until after the data is revealed might be the proper play here. After that, you can perform some due diligence on the famous ketchup concern. You just don't know what mood the market may be in at any given time.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.

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Last updated: November 26, 2009: 06:43 AM

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