Mary Anne and Pamela Aden are among the advisory world's top authorities on metals and resources.
In a recent Q&A session, the editors of The Aden Forecast answer the most common questions that they are asked by readers as to the current state and future outlook for the precious metals markets.
In addition, the sisters answer what they say is the most frequent question they receive: "What is the best way to buy gold." Here, they offer a review of five strategies for investing in gold, including their top picks among stocks, closed-end funds and ETFs.
Q. Are years of deflation ahead a good possibility?
A. Yes, this is indeed a possibility. Even though the world's central banks are doing everything they can to avoid this, deflation is already taking hold and there are reasons to believe that the economy could fall into a depression or a Japanese style long-term deflation, accompanied by falling prices, high unemployment and a collapse in the stock market.
"Real estate prices, for instance, continue to drop at a record pace, 10% of the U.S. population is now receiving food stamps, unemployment is at a 25 year high and consumer prices posted its first year-over-year decline in 54 years.
"So even though we still think inflation has the upper hand and it'll eventually emerge as a result of the massive spending and other government actions, it's important to keep an open mind and recognize that anything is possible. As we've often said, this is a time to be flexible, alert and open.
Q. Is it possible to see gold rising in a recession or disinflationary environment?
A. Yes it is. That's essentially what it's been doing for the past eight years. Gold rose steadily during the tech boom collapse and throughout the current crisis. As the economy worsened, gold benefitted as a safe haven during times of uncertainty, as it has throughout history, including the Great Depression.
"At that time, the gold price was fixed but the two largest gold companies gained five and six times their money in those four years. Over the past eight years, gold has gained nearly 300%. That's a lot better than most other investments and this will continue whether we see more recession, deflation or inflation.
Q. Is gold a good buy now or should I wait, or buy in increments over one year?
A. Gold is a good buy now. If you don't own any, buy. Currently, there is more availability and the premium on popular one ounce gold coins, like Gold Eagles, Maple Leafs, Krugerrands and Philharmonics have come down and they're almost normal again. This too shows that fear is easing.
Q. Do you think Obama, central banks or others can push the gold price down?
A. Temporarily yes but the major trend will always prevail, despite short-term setbacks. The IMF, for example, may soon be selling their gold but that may not affect the market because there's so much demand out there.
Q. Mining stocks are at a point where they were when gold was $450. Why?
A. There's no question that gold shares have been weaker than gold since early 2008. This year gold shares have been stronger than gold and that's primarily a rebound from extremes. As fear gripped the markets, investors fled to gold as a safe haven. But now that fear is easing, gold shares are again becoming more attractive.
Q. What is the big picture outlook for gold?
A. We believe that that 2009 in general is the time to buy on weakness. Gold's current bull market rise started in 2001 and it turned eight years old in February. The eight year mark has been a consistent low time for gold going back to the late 1960s when gold began trading in the free market.
"It has repeated four times since 1969 and the fifth one is probably happening now. By 'now' we mean that an eight year low can vary from 7 to 8½ years following the previous low, with the average being 8 years.
"In other words, the low could've been last November's low, three month's shy of eight years, or it could still be upcoming. The long side would be this summer.
"The point is, gold's at or near an important low time. We've been wanting you to buy gold during weakness because we believe this to be a key low time, enabling you to buy gold at a good price. The $2000 level will eventually be a likely target, near the top of gold's mega channel.
"That is, if the eight year low pattern repeats, current weakness (which we call the B decline) is providing an ideal time to buy new positions. We should have all of our positions bought by the Fall time period.
"Normally, in bull markets, C rises are the best rises when gold reaches a new bull market high. This has been the case in every C rise since 2001. So once gold begins a renewed bull market rise, it will continue this pattern of strength if gold closes above $1004, the record high. Gold could then possibly reach $1200 by year end.
Q: What are the best ways to gain exposure to gold and silver?
A. Investors continually ask us how and what is the best way to buy gold. The following overview will assist you in deciding what is best for you:
1) Buying one ounce gold coins, be it American Eagles, Maple Leafs, Krugerrands or Philharmonics, is the best way to buy gold and, in today's world the safest way to buy and keep gold. Likewise for silver, but with silver it's best to buy more in the bars, 10 or 100 ounce bars.
"Most reputable dealers will ship bars or coins across the U.S. Premiums and availability are the main considerations when picking a coin dealer. We recommend shopping around. If you don't have a dealer, we recommend American Gold Exchange in Texas.
2) Physical gold can also be bought on the internet, on sites like Kitco.com. It's important to buy from a reputable website and we know Kitco is one of these sites. They have several options and ways to buy gold. They also offer Perth Certificates guaranteed by the Australian government. This way you don't have to take delivery and your gold is held in Australia.
3) Most major banks in Canada, Europe and other countries also provide gold coins. Keep in mind, there are many companies who offer the same.
4) Since 2004, a gold exchange-traded fund now called SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) began and since then others have blossomed, from iShares Comex Gold (NYSE: IAU) to a silver ETF, the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV).
"This new demand gave a huge boost to gold investing and this provides an easy way to buy gold and silver. In addition, you can gain exposure to gold mining shares via the Market Vector Gold Miners Trust (NYSE: GDX).
"For those looking to buy individual mining stocks, we particularly like Eldorado Gold (ASE: EGO), as well as Goldcorp (NYSE: GG) and Agnico Eagle (NYSE: AEM).
5) "With GLD alone turning into a powerful gold source, many are concerned about confiscation and safety. A good way to diversify is by buying the Canadian funds -- Central Fund of Canada (ASE: CEF) and Central Gold Trust (ASE: GTU).
"Both of these are top-notch audited funds. CEF is a physical gold and silver holding while GTU owns gold only. They are closed end funds so it's important to check their premium over their net asset value."
Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a free daily overview of the favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
5-29-2009 @ 5:06PM
Gold Coins said...
Hi, thanks for this excellent article. I've digged and stumbled it - others should read it.
I hope you don't mind, but I've referenced it from my blog here (and included an small exerpt). It's something that my regular viewers should read through.
Thanks again.
Simon Carter.
5-29-2009 @ 2:33PM
Gold Coins said...
Blog here: zukhruuf.com/blog
5-30-2009 @ 4:29PM
Mack said...
There seems to be a big push on now to sell gold. Commercials on radio and TV are continually hawking the sale of gold, unlike when the price was in the $400 or even $600 range. It just seems to me that somebody is trying hard to unload their inventory. Also, if gold is such an investment bargain why aren't the Buffets of the world scooping it up?
5-30-2009 @ 7:54PM
Warren Lunsford said...
Notice they sale gold to you for your cash money. Your money is more important to them then their gold is.
5-30-2009 @ 10:36PM
tom said...
Gold is NOT a good value- not now at the outrageous price level is it. Unless one is a millionaire already. Anyone who tries to tell someone it is - is just plain selling a bunch of who shot John. Sorry, but once again, the pedelars of promises of huge payoffs are at it again. Plenty of other less pricey and, much safer investments to choose. Sadly, Gold- ain't one of 'em. Five years ago, sure. Not now. Its costs now per ounce correlate to the heinously speculative price of oil at $150ppb last July. Not a time to buy. Time to sell, if anything.
5-31-2009 @ 12:30AM
Rick said...
Hold only cash and/or short term T-Bills and absolutely nothing else. You won't earn much interest with these but it's of little concern right now since we are currently in a period of deflation. When and if inflation shows its familiar face again, consider holding U.S. Series I Savings Bonds and perhaps TIPS. Above all, avoid all banks and credit unions, stockbrokers, money managers and peddlers of gold, silver, or other commodities. As per the advocators of gold, silver, platinum, oil and the like, these people tend to prey on people's fears. The gold and silver advocates won't tell you outright but the only ones that will absolutely get the better deal out of this will be the banks, traders, speculators and coin dealers since these are the ones who produce and control these commodities.
5-31-2009 @ 12:41AM
p said...
You want the basics? BUY LOW, SELL HIGH.
5-31-2009 @ 8:19AM
jnjarnold said...
Man do I feel like a fish out of water! ...Well, everyone has to start somewhere, right? I thought that this article would provide some sort of basic info on the mechanics of investing....you know..the 'how', 'where' and 'why' of it all. Well I'm STILL mystified! Can anyone here recommend a good site that gives good direction and breaks everything down for simple, near-broke folks like me??
5-31-2009 @ 8:55AM
pilgrim said...
Trading gold or any precious metal may not be easy. With that in mind the ETF, GLD offers a simple solution. A commodity ETF, DBC also offers a very good route to follow if you believe inflation will be upon us soon.
5-31-2009 @ 10:52AM
DBELL said...
If an article on AOL is telling you yo buy gold then we must consider the source and their motives.The best place to put your money is probably in the foreign currency of your choice.Many countries are dropping the dollar like hot cakes and if you kept up with the President's trip to the G20 summit ,They told the world that America would no longer keep it's dominant position on the world stage and that we will take a passive back seat from now on.Look at it this way,the E.U. is taking over the space race ,N.A.S.A. has been being dismantled for years through massive budget cuts and every president of the U.S.A. for decades has talked about one world government.Our industrial base has been intentionally destroyed ,as has our economy.The only purpose these GLOBALISTS have left for America is reserved for your sons and daughters as pieces of meat to be thrown into whatever military theater they are exploiting at the time,and lets not forget whats left of your money in the form of cap and trade carbon taxation to be paid to the NEW WORLD ORDER.
5-31-2009 @ 11:00AM
MyKisa said...
consider how the IMF values gold, and also remember what FDR did for people who held gold....carbon credits will become more valuable than gold....all about control
5-31-2009 @ 11:45AM
Jeff said...
One thing the "experts" don't mention is the unfavorable tax consequences of buying and holding gold, including the ETF's GLD & IAU. The IRS does not offer the favorable tax status of long-term capital gains to holding physical gold or silver or the ETF's associated with them. It is classified as a "hobby" and treated as ordinary income. This isn't a problem with gold-mining stocks or mutual funds compoised of a basket of gold-mining stocks.
5-31-2009 @ 12:15PM
Rick said...
DBell: "Our industrial base has been intentionally destroyed ,as has our economy. The only purpose these GLOBALISTS have left for America is reserved for your sons and daughters as pieces of meat to be thrown into whatever military theater they are exploiting at the time,...". That's very well said and that's just what has been going on in Iraq. Rich capitalists from this country are exploiting Iraq's oil at the expense of our sons and daughters serving in Iraq. When these plunderers and pillagers have finally pumped the last remaining barrel of oil and our troops are thus no longer needed there, most of these servicemen will even be faced with the unpleasant choice of reenlisting since the future will be very grim for them at home. How's that for adding insult to injury?
5-31-2009 @ 4:10PM
mcwherter3 said...
if you want to invest in something,then invest in silver.silver has had some excellent days compared to gold and if your going to take a beating.do it insmall qauntities.you can actualy have a ball with silver.buy sell and trade for different coins.like silver eagles and morgan dollars.i just started a small collection spending a coulple hundred,not thousands
5-31-2009 @ 4:56PM
t said...
States having budget problems , Fed has HUUUUGE deficit ,people being forced to take furlough days pay cuts ,etc.Give me gold anyday . Look at ebay lots of gold bars at different size don't have to buy a full ounce at 980.00 .The good thing about it the majority of America is broke so won't be any bubble. Good combo physical and gold stocks and ETFs .If you're going to sell don't use Cash4gold they lowball you best to go to pawn shops .
5-31-2009 @ 5:55PM
kluj said...
In my humble opinion, having been trading within the markets for over 25 years gold has one more LARGE final leg down in its ongoing 25 year bear market and that even thought there is the possibility of a 10 to 20 percent rise from current levels a LARGER DECLINE is lurking in the not so distant future (between now and 2013). This decline could be so severe it would wipe out ones entire investment. I am looking for gold to trade between $50 and $200 per ounce at these lows which would then be an excellent entry point for a LONG TERM BULL MARKET in gold that would then probably last for a few decades. Think about this: If gold was really acting as it should be if it were truly in a bull market at the moment then should gold not be priced at maybe $2000 to $3000 per ounce. The country is in dire straights, wall street has collapsed, real estate is collapsing, wall street firms that were around since the beginning of time vanished over night and all gold has done is rallied to where it was in the late 70's early 80's. Inflation adjusted it should be trading much higher and it is NOT. Hence, stop listening to people like the Adens and the Cramers and any other so called "expert" and begin listening to the MARKET. The market is clearly telling you that something is the matter with gold and if i am correct there is one last violent leg to the downside. The masses are jumping from the frying pan (the stock and real estate market) and into the fire (gold). Be patient, the real bottom in gold is fast approaching (over the next few years) and gold will NOT be the featured article of where to invest. Then and only then will you know that gold is at it's ultimate bottom. Right when nobody wants it or is writting anything good about it!
A Veteran Market Trader
6-01-2009 @ 3:15PM
Jeremiah Foley said...
WHAT BILLIONAIRES KNOW THAT YOU DON'T!
BUY ART, THE ONLY REAL INVESTMENT!
Billionaires are people who because they've mastered the money game know something about money that you don't. It is ephemeral, without basis in reality beyond the momentary social and political entities that guarantee, administer and distribute it. As such, other than it's numismatic value or interest, or if perhaps it is comprised of some substance that is still considered valuable, old money from defunct governments then, is in fact, no money at all. Wealth then, is transitory, as recent events within our own economy have so severely reminded us as we have seen housing prices plummet, stock values evaporate and the value of our paper dollars diminish as trillions more are printed daily.
Hence, billionaires know that wealth does not last. Although some periodicals may keep a list of the richest in the world, all one has to do to be removed from that list and be forgotten, is to die. As such, billionaires such as Getty, Hurst, and Hammer accumulated works of art so as to by association, gain a small measure of their immortality. They understood that the only things of lasting value were artistic, those creations of the human mind that encapsulated that which it is to be, a human being.
As such, a rare opportunity is just now presenting itself to those with the wherewithal to understand the complexities and realities of value. The Bodies of Art project has been created out of the very fabric of our time, society and culture by Courtney "The Genius" Foley. A veritable tour de force of interrelation and correlation it finds it's roots in the ancient myths surrounding the now dead religious cult of Bacchus. A cult that celebrated the god of wine with wild debauches so as to re-create the myth of a god so beloved by his followers that in drunken, lecherous and libidinous lust, he was torn to pieces and strewn about the land, causing in the process the archetypical regeneration of spring.
From this ancient root Courtney "The Genius" Foley has fast forwarded into history by extrapolating this same dangerous, obsessive regard for those beings who though not gods, are held in the same strange otherworldly esteem of our age as created through marketing, celebrities! Through sheer accident one night, while contemplating the success of her brother Jeremy Foley, international star of movies and television, she realized that his middle name was Arturo! Jeremy Foley was Art himself! More than just a celebrity, he was Art itself!
In conjunction then with Jeremy Foley and her mother Rocio Foley they conceived a project of immense and intense scope that through the internet would combine celebrity collectables, with art both written and concrete in the forms of a screenplay and sculptures, with daring, mind altering ancillary product offerings and market tie ins that would create a completely new form of celebrity collectable, Jeremobilia!
This transcendent and transformative event promises to challenge and change the way people will think and see celebrity, mortality, immortality and reality forever! Now is the only opportunity that any entity private or public will ever have to possess this incredible complex of items both intellectual and physical in their entirety and at a price that will never again be possible! The Foley family, recognizing that with this project they will have transcended the need for money have agreed and are determined not to save one cent of any of the money gained but to instead completely dispose of it within twelve months by donating 25% of it to wounded veterans, making movies and generally redirecting it into the economy. Not only will the buyer receive this amazing artistic achievement, they will also be patriotically revitalizing the economy and helping wounded veterans!
6-01-2009 @ 8:11AM
setec5354 said...
the same culprit and corrupt analyst are tell ing you to buy this and that will put you in the poor house as did previously!!!
Listen to them again is like a fool that never learned!!!!
6-01-2009 @ 8:16AM
setec5354 said...
buying gold is when they told you not to back in year 2000.
GLG was at 0.75 cents and was bought out at $54.00 in 2007!
Buy now but sell at a profit but not hold and get kill later.
Gold will be at $80.00 soon and that is 100% up from only 3 months ago!!!!!
100% worth watching!!!!
6-02-2009 @ 8:04PM
Mike Sanders said...
Gold is not for capital appreciation. You aren't supposed to make money with gold. It merely provides a hedge against inflation and currency fluctuations, to protect what money you have. Totally lost in this market and you don't trust the banks, or the US Dollar... Buy Gold! Do you hate profitable companies and the fortunate people who own their stock? Buy Gold!! Do you fear an invasion by an alien race from beyond our galaxy? Buy Gold!!!
Note: If you fear nuclear war, I prefer T-bills and if you just don't care too much for money at all, invest in a CD... You won't get rich, but you cannot beat the safety of a CD, at your local bank, provided that there is not an alien invasion and nuclear war fails to emerge. One thing though, there is an even more serious threat that people seem oblivious to... Inflation! All those other numbers must pay the piper, when inflation rears it's ugly head... Always, subtract the rate of inflation, if you want to know where you are at and where you are heading. Inflation does NOT like being ignored and has the ability to gain everyone's attentions, within a relatively short run-up. Just Say NO, to Inflation!