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How to invest in gold: Q&A with the Adens

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Mary Anne and Pamela Aden are among the advisory world's top authorities on metals and resources.

In a recent Q&A session, the editors of The Aden Forecast answer the most common questions that they are asked by readers as to the current state and future outlook for the precious metals markets.

In addition, the sisters answer what they say is the most frequent question they receive: "What is the best way to buy gold." Here, they offer a review of five strategies for investing in gold, including their top picks among stocks, closed-end funds and ETFs.

Q. Are years of deflation ahead a good possibility?

A. Yes, this is indeed a possibility. Even though the world's central banks are doing everything they can to avoid this, deflation is already taking hold and there are reasons to believe that the economy could fall into a depression or a Japanese style long-term deflation, accompanied by falling prices, high unemployment and a collapse in the stock market.

"Real estate prices, for instance, continue to drop at a record pace, 10% of the U.S. population is now receiving food stamps, unemployment is at a 25 year high and consumer prices posted its first year-over-year decline in 54 years.

"So even though we still think inflation has the upper hand and it'll eventually emerge as a result of the massive spending and other government actions, it's important to keep an open mind and recognize that anything is possible. As we've often said, this is a time to be flexible, alert and open.

Q. Is it possible to see gold rising in a recession or disinflationary environment?

A. Yes it is. That's essentially what it's been doing for the past eight years. Gold rose steadily during the tech boom collapse and throughout the current crisis. As the economy worsened, gold benefitted as a safe haven during times of uncertainty, as it has throughout history, including the Great Depression.

"At that time, the gold price was fixed but the two largest gold companies gained five and six times their money in those four years. Over the past eight years, gold has gained nearly 300%. That's a lot better than most other investments and this will continue whether we see more recession, deflation or inflation.

Q. Is gold a good buy now or should I wait, or buy in increments over one year?

A. Gold is a good buy now. If you don't own any, buy. Currently, there is more availability and the premium on popular one ounce gold coins, like Gold Eagles, Maple Leafs, Krugerrands and Philharmonics have come down and they're almost normal again. This too shows that fear is easing.

Q. Do you think Obama, central banks or others can push the gold price down?

A. Temporarily yes but the major trend will always prevail, despite short-term setbacks. The IMF, for example, may soon be selling their gold but that may not affect the market because there's so much demand out there.

Q. Mining stocks are at a point where they were when gold was $450. Why?

A. There's no question that gold shares have been weaker than gold since early 2008. This year gold shares have been stronger than gold and that's primarily a rebound from extremes. As fear gripped the markets, investors fled to gold as a safe haven. But now that fear is easing, gold shares are again becoming more attractive.

Q. What is the big picture outlook for gold?

A. We believe that that 2009 in general is the time to buy on weakness. Gold's current bull market rise started in 2001 and it turned eight years old in February. The eight year mark has been a consistent low time for gold going back to the late 1960s when gold began trading in the free market.

"It has repeated four times since 1969 and the fifth one is probably happening now. By 'now' we mean that an eight year low can vary from 7 to 8½ years following the previous low, with the average being 8 years.

"In other words, the low could've been last November's low, three month's shy of eight years, or it could still be upcoming. The long side would be this summer.

"The point is, gold's at or near an important low time. We've been wanting you to buy gold during weakness because we believe this to be a key low time, enabling you to buy gold at a good price. The $2000 level will eventually be a likely target, near the top of gold's mega channel.

"That is, if the eight year low pattern repeats, current weakness (which we call the B decline) is providing an ideal time to buy new positions. We should have all of our positions bought by the Fall time period.

"Normally, in bull markets, C rises are the best rises when gold reaches a new bull market high. This has been the case in every C rise since 2001. So once gold begins a renewed bull market rise, it will continue this pattern of strength if gold closes above $1004, the record high. Gold could then possibly reach $1200 by year end.

Q: What are the best ways to gain exposure to gold and silver?

A. Investors continually ask us how and what is the best way to buy gold. The following overview will assist you in deciding what is best for you:

1) Buying one ounce gold coins, be it American Eagles, Maple Leafs, Krugerrands or Philharmonics, is the best way to buy gold and, in today's world the safest way to buy and keep gold. Likewise for silver, but with silver it's best to buy more in the bars, 10 or 100 ounce bars.

"Most reputable dealers will ship bars or coins across the U.S. Premiums and availability are the main considerations when picking a coin dealer. We recommend shopping around. If you don't have a dealer, we recommend American Gold Exchange in Texas.

2) Physical gold can also be bought on the internet, on sites like Kitco.com. It's important to buy from a reputable website and we know Kitco is one of these sites. They have several options and ways to buy gold. They also offer Perth Certificates guaranteed by the Australian government. This way you don't have to take delivery and your gold is held in Australia.

3) Most major banks in Canada, Europe and other countries also provide gold coins. Keep in mind, there are many companies who offer the same.

4) Since 2004, a gold exchange-traded fund now called SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) began and since then others have blossomed, from iShares Comex Gold (NYSE: IAU) to a silver ETF, the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV).

"This new demand gave a huge boost to gold investing and this provides an easy way to buy gold and silver. In addition, you can gain exposure to gold mining shares via the Market Vector Gold Miners Trust (NYSE: GDX).

"For those looking to buy individual mining stocks, we particularly like Eldorado Gold (ASE: EGO), as well as Goldcorp (NYSE: GG) and Agnico Eagle (NYSE: AEM).

5) "With GLD alone turning into a powerful gold source, many are concerned about confiscation and safety. A good way to diversify is by buying the Canadian funds -- Central Fund of Canada (ASE: CEF) and Central Gold Trust (ASE: GTU).

"Both of these are top-notch audited funds. CEF is a physical gold and silver holding while GTU owns gold only. They are closed end funds so it's important to check their premium over their net asset value."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a free daily overview of the favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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Last updated: November 09, 2009: 10:32 PM

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